#CriticalThinking
The 3 Vital Rules of Science: What They Are and Why They Matter
06 May 2025
BY SCOTT M. GRAFFIUS | ScottGraffius.com
Introduction
Ever wonder why some "scientific" claims sound convincing but fall apart under scrutiny? Science isn’t just a collection of facts—it’s a disciplined process for understanding the world. In today’s flood of information and competing claims, being fluent in the logic and rigor of science is more valuable than ever.
Scott M. Graffius shared a visual—similar to the one that heads-up this article—via social media. It garnered attention from professionals across disciplines. Prompted by the interest it generated, Graffius developed this article to provide deeper insight into the concepts behind the visual: falsifiability, replicability, and the critical distinction that correlation is not causation.
These principles are foundational to the scientific method and are frequently misunderstood. Together, they offer a powerful lens for evaluating claims, research rigor, and the validity of conclusions.
Falsifiability
Falsifiability means a scientific claim or hypothesis must be testable—and potentially provable wrong. Championed by philosopher Karl Popper, this idea is essential to science’s integrity. For example, “All swans are white” is falsifiable: a single black swan disproves it. In contrast, vague claims like “This crystal boosts your energy in ways science can’t measure” aren’t science. Falsifiability ensures ideas are grounded in evidence, not just belief or anecdote.
A real-world example is Einstein’s theory of general relativity. Einstein predicted that massive objects like the sun could bend light—a bold, falsifiable claim. In 1919, during a solar eclipse, astronomers led by Arthur Eddington tested this by observing starlight bending around the sun, exactly as Einstein predicted. If the light hadn’t bent, the theory could have been disproven—a hallmark of true science. This ability to be tested and potentially refuted sets scientific claims apart from pseudoscience or speculation.
Replicability
Replicability means an experiment or study should yield the same results when repeated under identical conditions. It’s how science builds trust and advances. If a finding can’t be replicated, its reliability is questionable. The “replication crisis” in fields like psychology and medicine has highlighted this principle, as many high-profile studies failed to hold up when retested.
A notable case is a 2011 study on “ego depletion,” which suggested that self-control draws from a limited pool of mental energy, reducing the ability to exert it elsewhere. The idea gained traction, influencing workplace productivity strategies and personal development advice. For example, people were advised to tackle tough tasks early to “save” mental energy. Yet, a 2016 large-scale replication effort with over 2,000 participants across multiple labs failed to reproduce the effect. This raised doubts about the validity of ego depletion and underscored the need for replication to distinguish genuine insights from flawed findings.
Replicability isn’t about perfection—it’s about transparency, rigor, and enabling the scientific community to verify and build on discoveries.
Correlation is Not Causation
One of the most misunderstood principles in science and statistics is the difference between correlation and causation. Just because two things occur together doesn’t mean one causes the other.
In the business world, a notable example involves the assumption that implementing employee wellness programs directly leads to improved company performance. Early studies observed that companies with such programs often reported better financial outcomes, leading to the belief that the wellness initiatives were the cause of this success. However, subsequent research, including a comprehensive randomized controlled trial conducted by the University of Chicago and Harvard University, found that while wellness programs might encourage some healthy behaviors, they did not significantly impact clinical health measures, healthcare spending, or job performance. This suggests that the initial correlation was likely influenced by other factors, such as the possibility that more successful companies have more resources to invest in wellness programs, rather than the programs themselves driving financial success. This example underscores the importance of not conflating correlation with causation.
By contrast, science can confirm causation. Take regular exercise: decades of research, from randomized trials to longitudinal studies, show it directly boosts cardiovascular health. Aerobic activity strengthens the heart, lowers blood pressure, and cuts heart disease risk—effects backed by clear biological evidence. Distinguishing correlation from causation is critical, as mistaking one for the other can lead to flawed conclusions, poor policies, and misleading headlines. Sound science digs deeper, using experiments and analysis to uncover cause-and-effect relationships.
Conclusion
The scientific method thrives on curiosity but demands discipline. Falsifiability, replicability, and the distinction between correlation and causation aren’t just academic concepts—they’re practical tools for critical thinking. Whether evaluating research, assessing a health claim, or analyzing business data, these rules help separate the meaningful from the merely suggestive. Embrace these principles, and you’ll not only navigate today’s flood of information with confidence but also inspire others to think critically in a world that needs it more than ever.
More
Read on for…
Bibliography
About Scott M. Graffius
Scott M. Graffius sparks breakthroughs in AI, agile, and project management/PMO leadership as a globally recognized practitioner, researcher, thought leader, award-winning author, and international public speaker.
Graffius has generated more than USD $2.3 billion in business value for organizations served, including Fortune 500 companies. Businesses and industries range from technology (including R&D and AI) to entertainment, financial services, and healthcare, government, social media, and more.
Graffius leads the professional services firm Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions, along with its subsidiary Exceptional Agility. These consultancies offer strategic and tactical advisory, training, embedded talent, and consulting services to public, private, and government sectors. They help organizations enhance their capabilities and results in agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership, supporting innovation and driving competitive advantage. The consultancies confidently back services with a Delighted Client Guarantee™. Graffius is a former vice president of project management with a publicly traded provider of diverse consumer products and services over the Internet. Before that, he ran and supervised the delivery of projects and programs in public and private organizations with businesses ranging from e-commerce to advanced technology products and services, retail, manufacturing, entertainment, and more. He has experience with consumer, business, reseller, government, and international markets.
He is the author of three books.
Prominent businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities have featured Graffius and his work including content from his books, talks, workshops, and more. Select examples include:
Graffius has been actively involved with the Project Management Institute (PMI) in the development of professional standards. He was a member of the team which produced the Practice Standard for Work Breakdown Structures—Second Edition. Graffius was a contributor and reviewer of A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge—Sixth Edition, The Standard for Program Management—Fourth Edition, and The Practice Standard for Project Estimating—Second Edition. He was also a subject matter expert reviewer of content for the PMI’s Congress. Beyond the PMI, Graffius also served as a member of the review team for two of the Scrum Alliance’s Global Scrum Gatherings.
Graffius has a bachelor’s degree in psychology with a focus in Human Factors. He holds eight professional certifications:
He is an active member of the Scrum Alliance, the Project Management Institute (PMI), and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
He divides his time between Los Angeles and Paris, France.
Thought Leader | Public Speaker | Agile Protocol Book | Agile Scrum Book | Agile Transformation Book | Blog | Photo | X | LinkedIn | Email
How to Cite This Article
Graffius, Scott M. (2025, May 6). The 3 Vital Rules of Science: What They Are and Why They Matter. Available at: https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/3-vital-rules-of-science-what-they-are-and-why-they-matter.html.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
DOI: (coming soon)
Content Acknowledgements
Names and marks are the property of their respective owners.
Copyright
Copyright © Scott M. Graffius. All rights reserved.
Content on this site—including text, images, videos, and data—may not be used for training or input into any artificial intelligence, machine learning, or automatized learning systems, or published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the express written permission of Scott M. Graffius.
Introduction
Ever wonder why some "scientific" claims sound convincing but fall apart under scrutiny? Science isn’t just a collection of facts—it’s a disciplined process for understanding the world. In today’s flood of information and competing claims, being fluent in the logic and rigor of science is more valuable than ever.
Scott M. Graffius shared a visual—similar to the one that heads-up this article—via social media. It garnered attention from professionals across disciplines. Prompted by the interest it generated, Graffius developed this article to provide deeper insight into the concepts behind the visual: falsifiability, replicability, and the critical distinction that correlation is not causation.
These principles are foundational to the scientific method and are frequently misunderstood. Together, they offer a powerful lens for evaluating claims, research rigor, and the validity of conclusions.
Falsifiability
Falsifiability means a scientific claim or hypothesis must be testable—and potentially provable wrong. Championed by philosopher Karl Popper, this idea is essential to science’s integrity. For example, “All swans are white” is falsifiable: a single black swan disproves it. In contrast, vague claims like “This crystal boosts your energy in ways science can’t measure” aren’t science. Falsifiability ensures ideas are grounded in evidence, not just belief or anecdote.
A real-world example is Einstein’s theory of general relativity. Einstein predicted that massive objects like the sun could bend light—a bold, falsifiable claim. In 1919, during a solar eclipse, astronomers led by Arthur Eddington tested this by observing starlight bending around the sun, exactly as Einstein predicted. If the light hadn’t bent, the theory could have been disproven—a hallmark of true science. This ability to be tested and potentially refuted sets scientific claims apart from pseudoscience or speculation.
Replicability
Replicability means an experiment or study should yield the same results when repeated under identical conditions. It’s how science builds trust and advances. If a finding can’t be replicated, its reliability is questionable. The “replication crisis” in fields like psychology and medicine has highlighted this principle, as many high-profile studies failed to hold up when retested.
A notable case is a 2011 study on “ego depletion,” which suggested that self-control draws from a limited pool of mental energy, reducing the ability to exert it elsewhere. The idea gained traction, influencing workplace productivity strategies and personal development advice. For example, people were advised to tackle tough tasks early to “save” mental energy. Yet, a 2016 large-scale replication effort with over 2,000 participants across multiple labs failed to reproduce the effect. This raised doubts about the validity of ego depletion and underscored the need for replication to distinguish genuine insights from flawed findings.
Replicability isn’t about perfection—it’s about transparency, rigor, and enabling the scientific community to verify and build on discoveries.
Correlation is Not Causation
One of the most misunderstood principles in science and statistics is the difference between correlation and causation. Just because two things occur together doesn’t mean one causes the other.
In the business world, a notable example involves the assumption that implementing employee wellness programs directly leads to improved company performance. Early studies observed that companies with such programs often reported better financial outcomes, leading to the belief that the wellness initiatives were the cause of this success. However, subsequent research, including a comprehensive randomized controlled trial conducted by the University of Chicago and Harvard University, found that while wellness programs might encourage some healthy behaviors, they did not significantly impact clinical health measures, healthcare spending, or job performance. This suggests that the initial correlation was likely influenced by other factors, such as the possibility that more successful companies have more resources to invest in wellness programs, rather than the programs themselves driving financial success. This example underscores the importance of not conflating correlation with causation.
By contrast, science can confirm causation. Take regular exercise: decades of research, from randomized trials to longitudinal studies, show it directly boosts cardiovascular health. Aerobic activity strengthens the heart, lowers blood pressure, and cuts heart disease risk—effects backed by clear biological evidence. Distinguishing correlation from causation is critical, as mistaking one for the other can lead to flawed conclusions, poor policies, and misleading headlines. Sound science digs deeper, using experiments and analysis to uncover cause-and-effect relationships.
Conclusion
The scientific method thrives on curiosity but demands discipline. Falsifiability, replicability, and the distinction between correlation and causation aren’t just academic concepts—they’re practical tools for critical thinking. Whether evaluating research, assessing a health claim, or analyzing business data, these rules help separate the meaningful from the merely suggestive. Embrace these principles, and you’ll not only navigate today’s flood of information with confidence but also inspire others to think critically in a world that needs it more than ever.
More
Read on for…
- Bibliography
- About Scott M. Graffius
- How to Cite This Article
- And more
Bibliography
- Baicker, K., Song, Z., & Cutler, D. M. (2019, April 16). Workplace Wellness Programs Fail to Improve Health, Study Finds. University of Chicago News. Available at: https://news.uchicago.edu/story/workplace-wellness-programs-fail-improve-health-study-finds.
- Croft, J., Parks, A., & Whillans, A. (2024, October 18). Why Workplace Well-Being Programs Don’t Achieve Better Outcomes. Harvard Business Review. Available at: https://hbr.org/2024/10/why-workplace-well-being-programs-dont-achieve-better-outcomes.
- Godfrey-Smith, P. (2003). Theory and Reality: An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science (2nd edition). University of Chicago Press.
- Graffius, Scott M. (2023, June). What Successful AI Teams Have in Common. ResearchGate. Available at: https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.29382.45120.
- Greenland, S., Pearl, J., & Robins, J. M. (1999). Causal Diagrams for Epidemiologic Research. Epidemiology, 10 (1): 37–48.
- Hacking, I. (1983). Representing and Intervening: Introductory Topics in the Philosophy of Natural Science. Cambridge University Press.
- Haack, S. (2003). Defending Science—Within Reason: Between Scientism and Cynicism. Prometheus Books.
- Hempel, C. G. (1966). Philosophy of Natural Science. Prentice-Hall.
- Lakatos, I. (1978). The Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes. Cambridge University Press.
- Meehl, P. E. (1978). Theoretical Risks and Tabular Asterisks: Sir Karl, Sir Ronald, and the Slow Progress of Soft Psychology. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 46 (4): 806–834.
- Meehl, P. E. (1990). Why Summaries of Research on Psychological Theories Are Often Uninterpretable. Psychological Reports, 66 (1): 195–244.
- Miller, J. (2019, April 16). Do wellness programs work? Harvard Medical School. Available at: https://hms.harvard.edu/news/do-wellness-programs-work.
- Morris, A. (2018, February 18). 3 Vital Rules of Science, in Plain English. Forbes.
- National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, et al. (2019, May 7). Reproducibility and Replicability in Science. National Academies Press (US). Available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK547546/.
- Nosek, B. A., et al. (2015). Promoting an Open Research Culture. Science, 348 (6242): 1422–1425.
- Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference (2nd edition). Cambridge University Press.
- Popper, K. R. (1959). The Logic of Scientific Discovery. Routledge.
- Schickore, J. (2014). The Philosophy of Scientific Experimentation. Cambridge University Press.
- Shadish, W. R., Cook, T. D., & Campbell, D. T. (2002). Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Generalized Causal Inference. Houghton Mifflin.
- Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House.
- Wasserstein, R. L., & Lazar, N. A. (2016). The ASA’s Statement on P-Values: Context, Process, and Purpose. The American Statistician, 70 (2): 129–133.
About Scott M. Graffius
Scott M. Graffius sparks breakthroughs in AI, agile, and project management/PMO leadership as a globally recognized practitioner, researcher, thought leader, award-winning author, and international public speaker.
Graffius has generated more than USD $2.3 billion in business value for organizations served, including Fortune 500 companies. Businesses and industries range from technology (including R&D and AI) to entertainment, financial services, and healthcare, government, social media, and more.
Graffius leads the professional services firm Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions, along with its subsidiary Exceptional Agility. These consultancies offer strategic and tactical advisory, training, embedded talent, and consulting services to public, private, and government sectors. They help organizations enhance their capabilities and results in agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership, supporting innovation and driving competitive advantage. The consultancies confidently back services with a Delighted Client Guarantee™. Graffius is a former vice president of project management with a publicly traded provider of diverse consumer products and services over the Internet. Before that, he ran and supervised the delivery of projects and programs in public and private organizations with businesses ranging from e-commerce to advanced technology products and services, retail, manufacturing, entertainment, and more. He has experience with consumer, business, reseller, government, and international markets.
He is the author of three books.
- Graffius' first book, Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions (paperback ISBN-13: 9781533370242) (Kindle ebook ASIN: B01FZ0JIIY), received 17 awards.
- His second book is Agile Transformation: A Brief Story of How an Entertainment Company Developed New Capabilities and Unlocked Business Agility to Thrive in an Era of Rapid Change (paperback ISBN-13: 9781072447962) (Kindle ebook ASIN: B07R9LJLPJ). BookAuthority named it one of the best Scrum books of all time.
- His third book—his first work of fiction—is Agile Protocol: The Transformation Ultimatum (Kindle ebook ASIN: B0F2SJ83WT) (Audible audiobook ASIN: B0DJG163R5).
Prominent businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities have featured Graffius and his work including content from his books, talks, workshops, and more. Select examples include:
- Adobe,
- American Management Association,
- Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute,
- Bayer,
- BMC Software,
- Boston University,
- Broadcom,
- Cisco,
- Coburg University of Applied Sciences and Arts Germany,
- Computer Weekly,
- Constructor University Germany,
- Data Governance Success,
- Deimos Aerospace,
- DevOps Institute,
- EU's European Commission,
- Ford Motor Company,
- GoDaddy,
- Harvard Medical School,
- Hasso Plattner Institute Germany,
- IEEE,
- Innovation Project Management,
- Johns Hopkins University,
- Journal of Neurosurgery,
- Lam Research (Semiconductors),
- Leadership Worthy,
- Life Sciences Trainers and Educators Network,
- London South Bank University,
- Microsoft,
- NASSCOM,
- National Academy of Sciences,
- New Zealand Government,
- Oracle,
- Pinterest Inc.,
- Project Management Institute,
- SANS Institute,
- SBG Neumark Germany,
- Singapore Institute of Technology,
- Torrens University Australia,
- TBS Switzerland,
- Tufts University,
- UC San Diego,
- UK Sports Institute,
- University of Galway Ireland,
- US Department of Energy,
- US National Park Service,
- US Tennis Association,
- Veleučilište u Rijeci Croatia,
- Verizon,
- Virginia Tech,
- Warsaw University of Technology,
- Wrike,
- Yale University,
- and many others.
Graffius has been actively involved with the Project Management Institute (PMI) in the development of professional standards. He was a member of the team which produced the Practice Standard for Work Breakdown Structures—Second Edition. Graffius was a contributor and reviewer of A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge—Sixth Edition, The Standard for Program Management—Fourth Edition, and The Practice Standard for Project Estimating—Second Edition. He was also a subject matter expert reviewer of content for the PMI’s Congress. Beyond the PMI, Graffius also served as a member of the review team for two of the Scrum Alliance’s Global Scrum Gatherings.
Graffius has a bachelor’s degree in psychology with a focus in Human Factors. He holds eight professional certifications:
- Certified SAFe 6 Agilist (SA),
- Certified Scrum Professional - ScrumMaster (CSP-SM),
- Certified Scrum Professional - Product Owner (CSP-PO),
- Certified ScrumMaster (CSM),
- Certified Scrum Product Owner (CSPO),
- Project Management Professional (PMP),
- Lean Six Sigma Green Belt (LSSGB), and
- IT Service Management Foundation (ITIL).
He is an active member of the Scrum Alliance, the Project Management Institute (PMI), and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
He divides his time between Los Angeles and Paris, France.
Thought Leader | Public Speaker | Agile Protocol Book | Agile Scrum Book | Agile Transformation Book | Blog | Photo | X | LinkedIn | Email
How to Cite This Article
Graffius, Scott M. (2025, May 6). The 3 Vital Rules of Science: What They Are and Why They Matter. Available at: https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/3-vital-rules-of-science-what-they-are-and-why-they-matter.html.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
DOI: (coming soon)
Content Acknowledgements
Names and marks are the property of their respective owners.
Copyright
Copyright © Scott M. Graffius. All rights reserved.
Content on this site—including text, images, videos, and data—may not be used for training or input into any artificial intelligence, machine learning, or automatized learning systems, or published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the express written permission of Scott M. Graffius.
PMI’s Infinity AI Gets the Basics of Team Development Alarmingly and Repeatedly Wrong
17 June 2025
BY SCOTT M. GRAFFIUS | ScottGraffius.com
If there's an update after this article is published, the information will appear in the Post-Publication Notes section.
Introduction
When an artificial intelligence product is released under the banner of the Project Management Institute (PMI)—a globally recognized authority on project management—it carries the weight of authority. PMI’s Infinity™ 2.0, marketed as an AI assistant to support professionals, should meet or exceed the accuracy of the PMI’s materials, especially on core topics such as team development.
Unfortunately, it does not.
This article reports how PMI Infinity performed when asked a basic question about a foundational concept in project management: the phases of team development (also known as the stages of team development, team dynamics, group dynamics, etc.). The result is a case study in misstatement, backpedaling, and conceptual fuzziness that would be unacceptable in a project management 101 course—let alone from a product designed to represent the PMI.
The Context: Team Development is Not Optional in Project Management
Bruce Tuckman’s 1965 model of team development—comprised of forming, storming, norming, and performing—was expanded in 1977 with colleague Mary Ann Jensen to include adjourning. These five phases are a well-established staple in organizational behavior, leadership studies, and—critically—project management.
PMI itself integrates Tuckman’s model into its materials. Project teams do not operate in a vacuum. Understanding how they form, clash, align, deliver, and disband is essential to project success. The project manager’s job is to navigate that lifecycle.
Failure in this area by PMI Infinity AI is not a minor glitch. It’s a foundational error, and it happened not just once but across multiple responses.
The Timeline of Errors: A Blow-by-Blow Breakdown
Here’s how PMI's Infinity AI handled the queries about team development, step by step (the detailed transcript is available in text format and screen shot format):
1. Omission of Adjourning in the Initial Answer
In the first response, PMI Infinity lists:
That’s it.
Adjourning—the critical fifth stage added in 1977—is not on the list. This is a fundamental factual error. Tuckman and Jensen's 1977 update has been in existence for 48 years. The AI’s failure to include it is inexcusable.
2. “Adjourning/Reforming” is a Fabricated Concept
Later, the AI refers to the last phase as “Adjourning/Reforming.”
This hybrid phrase does not originate from Tuckman or Tuckman/Jensen. It’s not a dual label. Adjourning is the correct term, and it has a specific meaning: the disbanding of the team. While teams can regroup in the future, Tuckman never inserted “reforming” as a part of the developmental progression.
This error is especially egregious because it fabricates terminology under the guise of authority. PMI Infinity is not just being sloppy—it’s making things up.
3. Misleading Framing of Adjourning
Even when the AI agrees with its error, corrects itself, and then uses the proper term (adjourning), it frames the phase as:
“... acknowledging the lifecycle of a team beyond the completion of a project.”
This phrasing is incomplete and misleading. It suggests that adjourning only occurs when a project is completed, ignoring the fact that teams may otherwise adjourn due to:
Reducing adjourning to “after completion” is not just simplistic—it’s incorrect. In real-world project management, teams disband for many reasons. This is not nuance; it’s the reality of the profession.
4. Only After Multiple Prompts Does the AI Yield an Accurate Answer
The AI repeatedly ignored facts and fabricated facts. Such AI errors are termed "hallucinations." Only because the user was an expert on the subject matter, there was several rounds of feedback and corrections.
An AI that needs to be corrected repeatedly, with escalating specificity, to get a basic, textbook-level answer right is not ready for professional use.
Why This Matters: The Cost of Getting It Wrong
The team development model is part of the behavioral bedrock of leadership, communication, and team performance. If PMI Infinity can’t reliably explain the phases of team development:
This is a serious, material issue. Misinformation at the foundational level breeds misunderstanding and downstream failure.
Final Scorecard
On a scale of 1-10 (where 10 is best), here's the rating of the performance of PMI's Infinity AI tool:
Conclusion: A Wake-Up Call for PMI and Users of PMI's Infinity AI
PMI Infinity AI failed to provide accurate, complete, and credible information on one of the most fundamental topics in project management. This should concern every professional who uses the tool.
Team development is not a minor topic. It is a core competency area covered in PMI publications and lived daily by project managers worldwide. For PMI’s AI to fumble this topic so spectacularly and repeatedly is not just ironic—it’s alarming.
Until significant improvements are made, PMI Infinity AI should only be used with extreme caution—and only with the user independently verifying information from reliable sources. When AI incorporates facts, it can be a powerful tool. When AI disregards facts or fabricates facts, it’s a threat. Alarmingly, PMI Infinity AI has shown that it repeatedly disregarded facts and fabricated facts.
More
Continue reading for:
About the PMI Infinity AI Tool
On January 22, 2024, the Project Management Institute (PMI) announced the launch of PMI Infinity™, marketed as an AI-powered assistant designed for project professionals. It claims to offer smart navigation through "over 14,000 vetted project‑management resources."
About the PMI
The Project Management Institute (PMI) is a globally recognized professional organization dedicated to advancing the practice, science, and profession of project management. Founded in 1969, it provides resources, certifications, and networking opportunities to empower professionals in managing projects effectively across various industries. Its flagship certifications, such as the Project Management Professional (PMP), are widely respected and sought after for demonstrating expertise in project leadership. Through its standards, publications, and global community, PMI fosters best practices and drives innovation in project, program, and portfolio management. Visit https://www.pmi.org to learn more.
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About Scott M. Graffius
Scott M. Graffius is an AI, Agile, and Project Management/PMO leader, researcher, author, and speaker. Along the way, he spearheaded initiatives that have generated over $2.3 billion in impact for organizations across tech, entertainment, finance, healthcare, and beyond. The following sections provide additional information on his experience, contributions, and influence.
Experience
Graffius heads the professional services firm Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions, along with its subsidiary Exceptional Agility. These consultancies offer strategic and tactical advisory, training, embedded expertise, and consulting services to the public, private, and government sectors. They help organizations enhance their capabilities and results in agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership, supporting innovation and driving competitive advantage. The consultancies confidently back services with a Delighted Client Guarantee™.
Graffius is a former VP of project management with a publicly traded provider of diverse consumer products and services over the Internet. Before that, he ran and supervised the delivery of projects and programs in public and private organizations with businesses ranging from e-commerce to advanced technology products and services, retail, manufacturing, entertainment, and more.
He has experience with consumer, business, reseller, government, and international markets.
Award-Winning Author
Graffius has authored three books.
International Public Speaker
Organizations worldwide engage Graffius to present on tech (including AI), Agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership. He crafts and delivers unique and compelling talks and workshops. To date, Graffius has conducted 94 sessions across 25 countries. Select examples of events include Agile Trends Gov, BSides (Newcastle Upon Tyne), Conf42 Quantum Computing, DevDays Europe, DevOps Institute, DevOpsDays (Geneva), Frug’Agile, IEEE, Microsoft, Scottish Summit, Scrum Alliance RSG (Nepal), Techstars, and W Love Games International Video Game Development Conference (Helsinki), and more.
With an average rating of 4.81 (on a scale of 1-5), sessions are highly valued.
The speaker engagement request form is here.
Thought Leadership and Influence
Prominent businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities have showcased Graffius and his contributions—spanning his books, talks, workshops, and beyond. Select examples include:
Graffius has played a key role in the Project Management Institute (PMI) in developing professional standards. He was a member of multiple teams that authored, reviewed, and produced:
Additional details are here.
He was also a subject matter expert reviewer of content for the PMI’s Congress. Beyond the PMI, Graffius also served as a member of the review team for two of the Scrum Alliance’s Global Scrum Gatherings.
Acclaimed Authority on Teamwork Tradecraft
Graffius is a renowned authority on teamwork tradecraft. Informed by the research of Bruce W. Tuckman and Mary Ann C. Jensen, over 100 subsequent studies, and Graffius' first-hand professional experience with, and analysis of, team leadership and performance, Graffius created his 'Phases of Team Development' as a unique perspective and visual conveying the five phases of team development. First introduced in 2008 and periodically updated, his work provides a diagnostic and strategic guide for navigating team dynamics. It provides actionable insights for leaders across industries to develop high-performance teams. Its adoption by esteemed organizations such as Yale University, IEEE, Cisco, Microsoft, Ford, Oracle, Broadcom, the U.S. National Park Service, and the Journal of Neurosurgery, among others, highlights its utility and value, solidifying its status as an indispensable resource for elevating team performance and driving organizational excellence.
The 2025 edition of Graffius' "Phases of Team Development" intellectual property is here.
Expert on Temporal Dynamics on Social Media Platforms
Graffius is also an authority on temporal dynamics on social media platforms. His 'Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts' research—first published in 2018 and updated annually—delivers a precise quantitative analysis of post longevity across digital platforms, utilizing advanced statistical techniques to determine mean half-life with precision. It establishes a solid empirical base, effectively highlighting the ephemeral nature of content within social media ecosystems. Referenced and applied by leading entities such as the Center for Direct Marketing, Fast Company, GoDaddy, Pinterest Inc., and PNAS, among others, his research exemplifies methodological rigor and sustained significance in the field of digital informatics.
The 2025 edition of Graffius "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research is here.
Education and Professional Certifications
Graffius has a bachelor’s degree in psychology with a focus in Human Factors. He holds eight professional certifications:
He is an active member of the Scrum Alliance, the Project Management Institute (PMI), and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
Advancing AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Management
Scott M. Graffius continues to advance the fields of AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Management through his leadership, research, writing, and real-world impact. Businesses and other organizations leverage Graffius’ insights to drive their success.
Thought Leader | Public Speaker | Agile Protocol Book | Agile Scrum Book | Agile Transformation Book | Blog | Photo | X | LinkedIn | Email
How to Cite This Article
Graffius, Scott M. (2025, June 17). PMI’s Infinity AI Gets the Basics of Team Development Alarmingly and Repeatedly Wrong. Available at: https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/pmi-infinity-ai-gets-the-basics-of-team-development-alarmingly-and-repeatedly-wrong---by-scott-m-graffius.html.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
DOI: (coming soon)
Content Acknowledgements
This article includes brief excerpts from the Project Management Institute (PMI), attributed and used under fair use for news reporting and analysis.
PMI and PMI Infinity names, marks, and content are the property of the Project Management Institute, Inc.
Post-Publication Notes
If there are any supplements or updates to this article after the date of publication, they will appear here.
Update on 18 June 2025
The page for PMI's Infinity AI tool (https://infinity.pmi.org/chat) has a "Provide Feedback" mechanism. The feedback form has three parts: satisfaction level, expectations, and suggested improvements. Graffius provided feedback to the PMI. His responses follow:
And here's a screen shot.
Further updates, if any, will appear here.
Copyright
Copyright © Scott M. Graffius. All rights reserved.
Content on this site—including text, images, videos, and data—may not be used for training or input into any artificial intelligence, machine learning, or automatized learning systems, or published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the express written permission of Scott M. Graffius.
If there's an update after this article is published, the information will appear in the Post-Publication Notes section.
Introduction
When an artificial intelligence product is released under the banner of the Project Management Institute (PMI)—a globally recognized authority on project management—it carries the weight of authority. PMI’s Infinity™ 2.0, marketed as an AI assistant to support professionals, should meet or exceed the accuracy of the PMI’s materials, especially on core topics such as team development.
Unfortunately, it does not.
This article reports how PMI Infinity performed when asked a basic question about a foundational concept in project management: the phases of team development (also known as the stages of team development, team dynamics, group dynamics, etc.). The result is a case study in misstatement, backpedaling, and conceptual fuzziness that would be unacceptable in a project management 101 course—let alone from a product designed to represent the PMI.
The Context: Team Development is Not Optional in Project Management
Bruce Tuckman’s 1965 model of team development—comprised of forming, storming, norming, and performing—was expanded in 1977 with colleague Mary Ann Jensen to include adjourning. These five phases are a well-established staple in organizational behavior, leadership studies, and—critically—project management.
PMI itself integrates Tuckman’s model into its materials. Project teams do not operate in a vacuum. Understanding how they form, clash, align, deliver, and disband is essential to project success. The project manager’s job is to navigate that lifecycle.
Failure in this area by PMI Infinity AI is not a minor glitch. It’s a foundational error, and it happened not just once but across multiple responses.
The Timeline of Errors: A Blow-by-Blow Breakdown
Here’s how PMI's Infinity AI handled the queries about team development, step by step (the detailed transcript is available in text format and screen shot format):
1. Omission of Adjourning in the Initial Answer
In the first response, PMI Infinity lists:
- Forming,
- Storming,
- Norming, and
- Performing.
That’s it.
Adjourning—the critical fifth stage added in 1977—is not on the list. This is a fundamental factual error. Tuckman and Jensen's 1977 update has been in existence for 48 years. The AI’s failure to include it is inexcusable.
2. “Adjourning/Reforming” is a Fabricated Concept
Later, the AI refers to the last phase as “Adjourning/Reforming.”
This hybrid phrase does not originate from Tuckman or Tuckman/Jensen. It’s not a dual label. Adjourning is the correct term, and it has a specific meaning: the disbanding of the team. While teams can regroup in the future, Tuckman never inserted “reforming” as a part of the developmental progression.
This error is especially egregious because it fabricates terminology under the guise of authority. PMI Infinity is not just being sloppy—it’s making things up.
3. Misleading Framing of Adjourning
Even when the AI agrees with its error, corrects itself, and then uses the proper term (adjourning), it frames the phase as:
“... acknowledging the lifecycle of a team beyond the completion of a project.”
This phrasing is incomplete and misleading. It suggests that adjourning only occurs when a project is completed, ignoring the fact that teams may otherwise adjourn due to:
- Project cancellation,
- Restructuring,
- Budget cuts,
- Organizational shifts, or
- Other related situations.
Reducing adjourning to “after completion” is not just simplistic—it’s incorrect. In real-world project management, teams disband for many reasons. This is not nuance; it’s the reality of the profession.
4. Only After Multiple Prompts Does the AI Yield an Accurate Answer
The AI repeatedly ignored facts and fabricated facts. Such AI errors are termed "hallucinations." Only because the user was an expert on the subject matter, there was several rounds of feedback and corrections.
An AI that needs to be corrected repeatedly, with escalating specificity, to get a basic, textbook-level answer right is not ready for professional use.
Why This Matters: The Cost of Getting It Wrong
The team development model is part of the behavioral bedrock of leadership, communication, and team performance. If PMI Infinity can’t reliably explain the phases of team development:
- How can it be trusted to assist professionals under deadline pressure?
- How will it guide students or others trying to build foundational knowledge?
- What confidence can any user have that more complex questions will yield credible results?
This is a serious, material issue. Misinformation at the foundational level breeds misunderstanding and downstream failure.
Final Scorecard
On a scale of 1-10 (where 10 is best), here's the rating of the performance of PMI's Infinity AI tool:
- Factual Accuracy: 1/10
- Alignment with PMI Materials: 1/10
- Terminological Precision: 1/10
- Responsiveness to Correction: 5/10
- Professional Use Readiness: 1/10
- Overall Score: 1/10
Conclusion: A Wake-Up Call for PMI and Users of PMI's Infinity AI
PMI Infinity AI failed to provide accurate, complete, and credible information on one of the most fundamental topics in project management. This should concern every professional who uses the tool.
Team development is not a minor topic. It is a core competency area covered in PMI publications and lived daily by project managers worldwide. For PMI’s AI to fumble this topic so spectacularly and repeatedly is not just ironic—it’s alarming.
Until significant improvements are made, PMI Infinity AI should only be used with extreme caution—and only with the user independently verifying information from reliable sources. When AI incorporates facts, it can be a powerful tool. When AI disregards facts or fabricates facts, it’s a threat. Alarmingly, PMI Infinity AI has shown that it repeatedly disregarded facts and fabricated facts.
More
Continue reading for:
- About the PMI Infinity AI Tool,
- About the PMI,
- Additional Articles,
- About Scott M. Graffius,
- How to Cite This Article,
- and more.
About the PMI Infinity AI Tool
On January 22, 2024, the Project Management Institute (PMI) announced the launch of PMI Infinity™, marketed as an AI-powered assistant designed for project professionals. It claims to offer smart navigation through "over 14,000 vetted project‑management resources."
About the PMI
The Project Management Institute (PMI) is a globally recognized professional organization dedicated to advancing the practice, science, and profession of project management. Founded in 1969, it provides resources, certifications, and networking opportunities to empower professionals in managing projects effectively across various industries. Its flagship certifications, such as the Project Management Professional (PMP), are widely respected and sought after for demonstrating expertise in project leadership. Through its standards, publications, and global community, PMI fosters best practices and drives innovation in project, program, and portfolio management. Visit https://www.pmi.org to learn more.
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About Scott M. Graffius
Scott M. Graffius is an AI, Agile, and Project Management/PMO leader, researcher, author, and speaker. Along the way, he spearheaded initiatives that have generated over $2.3 billion in impact for organizations across tech, entertainment, finance, healthcare, and beyond. The following sections provide additional information on his experience, contributions, and influence.
Experience
Graffius heads the professional services firm Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions, along with its subsidiary Exceptional Agility. These consultancies offer strategic and tactical advisory, training, embedded expertise, and consulting services to the public, private, and government sectors. They help organizations enhance their capabilities and results in agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership, supporting innovation and driving competitive advantage. The consultancies confidently back services with a Delighted Client Guarantee™.
Graffius is a former VP of project management with a publicly traded provider of diverse consumer products and services over the Internet. Before that, he ran and supervised the delivery of projects and programs in public and private organizations with businesses ranging from e-commerce to advanced technology products and services, retail, manufacturing, entertainment, and more.
He has experience with consumer, business, reseller, government, and international markets.
Award-Winning Author
Graffius has authored three books.
- Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions, his first book, earned 17 awards.
- Agile Transformation: A Brief Story of How an Entertainment Company Developed New Capabilities and Unlocked Business Agility to Thrive in an Era of Rapid Change, his second book, was named one of the best Scrum books of all time by BookAuthority.
- Agile Protocol: The Transformation Ultimatum, his third book and his first work of fiction, was released in April 2025. The book trailer is on YouTube.
International Public Speaker
Organizations worldwide engage Graffius to present on tech (including AI), Agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership. He crafts and delivers unique and compelling talks and workshops. To date, Graffius has conducted 94 sessions across 25 countries. Select examples of events include Agile Trends Gov, BSides (Newcastle Upon Tyne), Conf42 Quantum Computing, DevDays Europe, DevOps Institute, DevOpsDays (Geneva), Frug’Agile, IEEE, Microsoft, Scottish Summit, Scrum Alliance RSG (Nepal), Techstars, and W Love Games International Video Game Development Conference (Helsinki), and more.
With an average rating of 4.81 (on a scale of 1-5), sessions are highly valued.
The speaker engagement request form is here.
Thought Leadership and Influence
Prominent businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities have showcased Graffius and his contributions—spanning his books, talks, workshops, and beyond. Select examples include:
- Adobe,
- American Management Association,
- Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute,
- Bayer,
- BMC Software,
- Boston University,
- Broadcom,
- Cisco,
- Coburg University of Applied Sciences and Arts - Germany,
- Computer Weekly,
- Constructor University - Germany,
- Data Governance Success,
- Deimos Aerospace,
- DevOps Institute,
- Dropbox,
- EU's European Commission,
- Ford Motor Company,
- Gartner,
- GoDaddy,
- Harvard Medical School,
- Hasso Plattner Institute - Germany,
- IEEE,
- Innovation Project Management,
- Johns Hopkins University,
- Journal of Neurosurgery,
- Lam Research (Semiconductors),
- Leadership Worthy,
- Life Sciences Trainers and Educators Network,
- London South Bank University,
- Microsoft,
- NASSCOM,
- National Academy of Sciences,
- New Zealand Government,
- Oracle,
- Pinterest Inc.,
- Project Management Institute,
- Mary Raum (Professor of National Security Affairs, United States Naval War College),
- SANS Institute,
- SBG Neumark - Germany,
- Singapore Institute of Technology,
- Torrens University - Australia,
- TBS Switzerland,
- Tufts University,
- UC San Diego,
- UK Sports Institute,
- University of Galway - Ireland,
- US Department of Energy,
- US National Park Service,
- US Soccer,
- US Tennis Association,
- Verizon,
- Wrike,
- Yale University,
- and many others.
Graffius has played a key role in the Project Management Institute (PMI) in developing professional standards. He was a member of multiple teams that authored, reviewed, and produced:
- Practice Standard for Work Breakdown Structures—Second Edition.
- A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge—Sixth Edition.
- The Standard for Program Management—Fourth Edition.
- The Practice Standard for Project Estimating—Second Edition.
Additional details are here.
He was also a subject matter expert reviewer of content for the PMI’s Congress. Beyond the PMI, Graffius also served as a member of the review team for two of the Scrum Alliance’s Global Scrum Gatherings.
Acclaimed Authority on Teamwork Tradecraft
Graffius is a renowned authority on teamwork tradecraft. Informed by the research of Bruce W. Tuckman and Mary Ann C. Jensen, over 100 subsequent studies, and Graffius' first-hand professional experience with, and analysis of, team leadership and performance, Graffius created his 'Phases of Team Development' as a unique perspective and visual conveying the five phases of team development. First introduced in 2008 and periodically updated, his work provides a diagnostic and strategic guide for navigating team dynamics. It provides actionable insights for leaders across industries to develop high-performance teams. Its adoption by esteemed organizations such as Yale University, IEEE, Cisco, Microsoft, Ford, Oracle, Broadcom, the U.S. National Park Service, and the Journal of Neurosurgery, among others, highlights its utility and value, solidifying its status as an indispensable resource for elevating team performance and driving organizational excellence.
The 2025 edition of Graffius' "Phases of Team Development" intellectual property is here.
Expert on Temporal Dynamics on Social Media Platforms
Graffius is also an authority on temporal dynamics on social media platforms. His 'Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts' research—first published in 2018 and updated annually—delivers a precise quantitative analysis of post longevity across digital platforms, utilizing advanced statistical techniques to determine mean half-life with precision. It establishes a solid empirical base, effectively highlighting the ephemeral nature of content within social media ecosystems. Referenced and applied by leading entities such as the Center for Direct Marketing, Fast Company, GoDaddy, Pinterest Inc., and PNAS, among others, his research exemplifies methodological rigor and sustained significance in the field of digital informatics.
The 2025 edition of Graffius "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research is here.
Education and Professional Certifications
Graffius has a bachelor’s degree in psychology with a focus in Human Factors. He holds eight professional certifications:
- Certified SAFe 6 Agilist (SA),
- Certified Scrum Professional - ScrumMaster (CSP-SM),
- Certified Scrum Professional - Product Owner (CSP-PO),
- Certified ScrumMaster (CSM),
- Certified Scrum Product Owner (CSPO),
- Project Management Professional (PMP),
- Lean Six Sigma Green Belt (LSSGB), and
- IT Service Management Foundation (ITIL).
He is an active member of the Scrum Alliance, the Project Management Institute (PMI), and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
Advancing AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Management
Scott M. Graffius continues to advance the fields of AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Management through his leadership, research, writing, and real-world impact. Businesses and other organizations leverage Graffius’ insights to drive their success.
Thought Leader | Public Speaker | Agile Protocol Book | Agile Scrum Book | Agile Transformation Book | Blog | Photo | X | LinkedIn | Email
How to Cite This Article
Graffius, Scott M. (2025, June 17). PMI’s Infinity AI Gets the Basics of Team Development Alarmingly and Repeatedly Wrong. Available at: https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/pmi-infinity-ai-gets-the-basics-of-team-development-alarmingly-and-repeatedly-wrong---by-scott-m-graffius.html.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
DOI: (coming soon)
Content Acknowledgements
This article includes brief excerpts from the Project Management Institute (PMI), attributed and used under fair use for news reporting and analysis.
PMI and PMI Infinity names, marks, and content are the property of the Project Management Institute, Inc.
Post-Publication Notes
If there are any supplements or updates to this article after the date of publication, they will appear here.
Update on 18 June 2025
The page for PMI's Infinity AI tool (https://infinity.pmi.org/chat) has a "Provide Feedback" mechanism. The feedback form has three parts: satisfaction level, expectations, and suggested improvements. Graffius provided feedback to the PMI. His responses follow:
- Satisfaction: Graffius selected: Very Unsatisfied.
- Expectations: Graffius wrote: "At a minimum, PMI's AI should get basic project management information right. However, it got simple info on team development repeatedly wrong. See: https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/pmi-infinity-ai-gets-the-basics-of-team-development-alarmingly-and-repeatedly-wrong---by-scott-m-graffius.html"
- Suggested improvements: Graffius wrote: "Because PMI's Infinity AI tool has not yet delivered correct information on basic project management matters, fixing that shocking problem should be the immediate objective."
And here's a screen shot.
Further updates, if any, will appear here.
Copyright
Copyright © Scott M. Graffius. All rights reserved.
Content on this site—including text, images, videos, and data—may not be used for training or input into any artificial intelligence, machine learning, or automatized learning systems, or published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the express written permission of Scott M. Graffius.