Skewed unimodal distribution
A Deep Dive Into the Typical Engagement Pattern for Social Media Posts
09 February 2026
BY SCOTT M. GRAFFIUS | ScottGraffius.com
Social media content usually has a short window of relevance and engagement. An advantageous objective metric is half-life. It’s the time it takes for a post to receive half of its total engagement (such as likes, shares, and comments). Data can help inform strategic and tactical decisions, such as the frequency and scheduling of posts.
Eight years ago, Scott M. Graffius first published data on the half-life of posts on different social media networks. Because algorithms and other factors evolve, he periodically updates his work. On 23 January 2026, Graffius released the 2026 edition of his "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research.
Businesses, professional associations, government agencies, social media researchers, influencers, publications, and others have featured and used prior editions of the research. Select examples include BMC, Buffer, Fast Company, GoDaddy, Journal of Hand Surgery (European Volume), Maximizing LinkedIn for Business Growth, Ministère de la Culture, Pinterest, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), Telecommunications Policy, World Economic Forum, and many more.
The 2026 edition covers Snapchat, TikTok, X, Facebook, Reddit, Instagram, LinkedIn, podcasts, YouTube, Pinterest, and blogs. Findings were derived from an extensive analysis of over 5,600,000 social media posts and 397 podcasts, aggregated from multiple sources, including APIs, proprietary commercial datasets, academic and research consortium databases, publicly shared datasets, governmental data repositories, and other sources.
The "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts: Update for 2026" stands out for its:
◾️ Scope (5.6 million posts),
◾️ Coverage (11 platforms),
◾️ Methodology (multi-source, representative, data-driven),
◾️ Continuity (annual updates), and
◾️ Value (actionable insights).
The following visual provides a summary of the findings, and the details are here.
The annual updates provide details, including sources, references, and an extensive list of frequently asked questions (FAQs), among other information. Additionally, Graffius occasionally provides companion pieces, such as "Supplement to Graffius' 'Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts' Research: Typical Engagement Distribution Pattern for Social Media Posts."
Graffius sat down with a scientist for an even deeper dive into the intriguing temporal patterns of engagement. Graffius is sharing highlights from that conversation in this concise supplement on his research.
The "Typical Engagement Distribution Pattern for Social Media Posts" visual above (and also shown at the top of this article) illustrates the temporal distribution of engagement (e.g., likes, comments, shares, etc.) for a typical social media post, exhibiting a positively skewed unimodal probability density function (a rate-of-engagement function over time).
Key scientifically precise characteristics include (these reflect common patterns observed across real datasets; exact fits vary by platform):
This pattern is consistent with a positively skewed, heavy-tailed, right-censored lifetime process or a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a rapidly decaying intensity function λ(t) that is highest immediately after t = 0 and then falls off sharply before asymptoting toward a very low baseline rate.
In short, the typical engagement pattern for social media posts is a positively skewed, heavy-tailed unimodal engagement-rate distribution with rapid early peaking and extended low-level tail, resulting in the majority of lifetime engagement accruing soon after posting.
To learn more, see the "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts: Update for 2026" research.
Graffius, S. M. (2024, September 30). Supplement to Graffius' 'Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts' Research: Typical Engagement Distribution Pattern for Social Media Posts. ScottGraffius.com. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.15820.22402
Graffius, S. M. (2026, January 23). Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts: Update for 2026. ScottGraffius.com. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.32407.43689
Resnick, S. I. (2007). Heavy-Tail Phenomena: Probabilistic and Statistical Modeling. Springer.
Jayakrishnan, N., Wierman, A., & Zwart, B. (2021). The Fundamentals of Heavy Tails: Properties, Emergence, and Estimation. Cambridge University Press.
Mendenhall, W., Beaver, R. J., & Beaver, B. M. (2023). Introduction to Probability and Statistics (15th Ed.). Cengage.
Scott M. Graffius is a strategic transformation leader who drives AI, Agile, and broader business and technology initiatives to deliver measurable value across projects, programs, portfolios, and PMOs. He is an expert in the teamwork tradecraft of both human and human-AI teams, including the “exotic team dynamics” that emerge. He is also an authority on the temporal patterns of social media, including the half-life of audience engagement.
He’s a practitioner, researcher, thought leader, award-winning author, and keynote speaker who’s taken the stage at 96 conferences and other events across 25 countries.
He’s delivered over $2.3 billion in value for Fortune 500 companies and other leaders in technology, entertainment, financial services, healthcare, and beyond.
Businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities use Graffius and feature his work. Examples include Adobe, Bayer, Boston University, Ford, Gartner, Harvard Medical School, IEEE, Johns Hopkins University, Microsoft, MSN, National Academy of Sciences, Oracle, Pinterest Inc., Project Management Institute, UC San Diego, Verizon, Yale University, and others.
The following sections provide additional information on his experience, contributions, and influence.
Experience
Graffius heads the professional services firm Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions, along with its subsidiary Exceptional Agility. These consultancies offer strategic and tactical advisory, training, embedded expertise, and consulting services to the public, private, and government sectors. They help organizations enhance their capabilities and results in agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership, supporting innovation and driving competitive advantage. The consultancies confidently back services with a Delighted Client Guarantee™.
Graffius is a former VP of project management with a publicly traded provider of diverse consumer products and services over the Internet. Before that, he ran and supervised the delivery of projects and programs in public and private organizations with businesses ranging from e-commerce to advanced technology products and services, retail, manufacturing, entertainment, and more.
He has experience with consumer, business, reseller, government, and international markets.
Award-Winning Author
Graffius has authored three books.
International Public Speaker
Organizations worldwide engage Graffius to present on tech (including AI), Agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership. He crafts and delivers unique and compelling talks and workshops. Graffius has conducted 96 sessions across 25 countries. Select examples of events include Agile Trends Gov, BSides (Newcastle Upon Tyne), Conf42 Quantum Computing, DevDays Europe, DevOps Institute, DevOpsDays (Geneva), Frug’Agile, IEEE, Microsoft, Scottish Summit, Scrum Alliance RSG (Nepal), Techstars, and W Love Games International Video Game Development Conference (Helsinki), and more.
With an average rating of 4.81 (on a scale of 1-5), sessions are highly valued.
The speaker engagement request form is here.
Thought Leadership and Influence
Prominent businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities have showcased Graffius and his contributions—spanning his books, talks, workshops, and beyond. Select examples include:
Graffius has played a key role in the Project Management Institute (PMI) in developing professional standards. He was a member of multiple teams that authored, reviewed, and produced:
Additional details are here.
He was also a subject matter expert reviewer of content for the PMI’s Congress. Beyond the PMI, Graffius also served as a member of the review team for two of the Scrum Alliance’s Global Scrum Gatherings.
Acclaimed Authority on Teamwork Tradecraft
Graffius is a renowned authority on teamwork tradecraft. Informed by the research of Bruce W. Tuckman and Mary Ann C. Jensen, over 150 subsequent studies, and Graffius' first-hand professional experience with, and analysis of, team leadership and performance, Graffius created his "Phases of Team Development" intellectual property as a unique perspective and visual conveying the five phases of team development. First introduced in 2008 and periodically updated, his work provides a diagnostic and strategic guide for navigating team dynamics. It provides actionable insights for leaders across industries to develop high-performance teams. Its adoption by esteemed organizations such as Yale University, IEEE, Cisco, Microsoft, Ford, Oracle, Broadcom, the U.S. National Park Service, and the Journal of Neurosurgery, among others, highlights its utility and value, solidifying its status as an indispensable resource for elevating team performance and driving organizational excellence. In 2026, Graffius added human-AI teamwork—including the "exotic team dynamics" which emerge when advanced AI collaborates as a teammate—to his "Phases of Team Development."
The 2026 edition of Graffius' "Phases of Team Development" intellectual property is here.
Expert on Temporal Dynamics on Social Media Platforms
Graffius is also an authority on temporal dynamics on social media platforms. His "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research—first published in 2018 and updated annually—delivers a precise quantitative analysis of post longevity across digital platforms, utilizing advanced statistical techniques to determine mean half-life with precision. It establishes a solid empirical base, effectively highlighting the ephemeral nature of content within social media ecosystems. Referenced and applied by leading entities—such as Fast Company, GoDaddy, Journal of Hand Surgery (European Volume), Ministère de la Culture (French Ministry of Culture), Pinterest Inc., PNAS, and Telecommunications Policy, among others—his research exemplifies methodological rigor and sustained significance in the field of digital informatics.
The 2026 edition of Graffius "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research is here.
Education and Professional Certifications
Graffius has a bachelor’s degree in psychology with a focus in Human Factors. He holds eight professional certifications:
He is an active member of the Scrum Alliance, the Project Management Institute (PMI), and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
Advancing AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Management
Scott M. Graffius continues to advance the fields of AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Management through his leadership, research, writing, and real-world impact. Businesses and other organizations leverage Graffius’ insights to drive their success.
Discover Scott’s Books
Connect with and follow Scott on LinkedIn, X, YouTube, Facebook, Threads, Bluesky, Mastodon, and ResearchGate.
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Names, marks, and content are the property of their respective owners.
If there are any supplements or updates to this article after the date of publication, they will appear here.
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Content on this site—including text, images, videos, and data—may not be used for training or input into any artificial intelligence, machine learning, or automatized learning systems, or published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the express written permission of Scott M. Graffius.
Introduction
Social media content usually has a short window of relevance and engagement. An advantageous objective metric is half-life. It’s the time it takes for a post to receive half of its total engagement (such as likes, shares, and comments). Data can help inform strategic and tactical decisions, such as the frequency and scheduling of posts.
Eight years ago, Scott M. Graffius first published data on the half-life of posts on different social media networks. Because algorithms and other factors evolve, he periodically updates his work. On 23 January 2026, Graffius released the 2026 edition of his "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research.
Businesses, professional associations, government agencies, social media researchers, influencers, publications, and others have featured and used prior editions of the research. Select examples include BMC, Buffer, Fast Company, GoDaddy, Journal of Hand Surgery (European Volume), Maximizing LinkedIn for Business Growth, Ministère de la Culture, Pinterest, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), Telecommunications Policy, World Economic Forum, and many more.
The 2026 edition covers Snapchat, TikTok, X, Facebook, Reddit, Instagram, LinkedIn, podcasts, YouTube, Pinterest, and blogs. Findings were derived from an extensive analysis of over 5,600,000 social media posts and 397 podcasts, aggregated from multiple sources, including APIs, proprietary commercial datasets, academic and research consortium databases, publicly shared datasets, governmental data repositories, and other sources.
The "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts: Update for 2026" stands out for its:
◾️ Scope (5.6 million posts),
◾️ Coverage (11 platforms),
◾️ Methodology (multi-source, representative, data-driven),
◾️ Continuity (annual updates), and
◾️ Value (actionable insights).
The following visual provides a summary of the findings, and the details are here.
The annual updates provide details, including sources, references, and an extensive list of frequently asked questions (FAQs), among other information. Additionally, Graffius occasionally provides companion pieces, such as "Supplement to Graffius' 'Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts' Research: Typical Engagement Distribution Pattern for Social Media Posts."
Graffius sat down with a scientist for an even deeper dive into the intriguing temporal patterns of engagement. Graffius is sharing highlights from that conversation in this concise supplement on his research.
Details on the Temporal Distribution of Engagement
The "Typical Engagement Distribution Pattern for Social Media Posts" visual above (and also shown at the top of this article) illustrates the temporal distribution of engagement (e.g., likes, comments, shares, etc.) for a typical social media post, exhibiting a positively skewed unimodal probability density function (a rate-of-engagement function over time).
Key scientifically precise characteristics include (these reflect common patterns observed across real datasets; exact fits vary by platform):
- Unimodal shape — A single dominant mode (peak) occurring shortly after publication (t ≈ 0⁺), representing the highest instantaneous engagement rate soon after posting.
- Strong positive (right) skew — The distribution is markedly asymmetric, with a rapid rise to the mode followed by a comparatively long right tail of progressively diminishing (but non-zero) engagement extending over a much longer duration. This reflects the classic "early burst + long tail" pattern widely observed in online content consumption dynamics.
- Heavy-tailed decay after the peak — The post-peak decline is generally much steeper than exponential in the initial phase (often approximating power-law-like or stretched-exponential behavior in real datasets), transitioning to a very slow, low-level residual engagement in the tail. This produces the characteristic skewness.
- Half-life annotation — In the "Typical Engagement Distribution Pattern for Social Media Posts" visual, the dashed green line marks the point where the cumulative engagement (orange curve) reaches 50% of the eventual total lifetime engagement, visually emphasizing how disproportionately early the majority of interactions occur (a hallmark of many attention/virality processes on social platforms).
This pattern is consistent with a positively skewed, heavy-tailed, right-censored lifetime process or a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a rapidly decaying intensity function λ(t) that is highest immediately after t = 0 and then falls off sharply before asymptoting toward a very low baseline rate.
Conclusion
In short, the typical engagement pattern for social media posts is a positively skewed, heavy-tailed unimodal engagement-rate distribution with rapid early peaking and extended low-level tail, resulting in the majority of lifetime engagement accruing soon after posting.
To learn more, see the "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts: Update for 2026" research.
Bibliography
Graffius, S. M. (2024, September 30). Supplement to Graffius' 'Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts' Research: Typical Engagement Distribution Pattern for Social Media Posts. ScottGraffius.com. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.15820.22402
Graffius, S. M. (2026, January 23). Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts: Update for 2026. ScottGraffius.com. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.32407.43689
Further Reading on Probability and Statistical Distributions
Resnick, S. I. (2007). Heavy-Tail Phenomena: Probabilistic and Statistical Modeling. Springer.
Jayakrishnan, N., Wierman, A., & Zwart, B. (2021). The Fundamentals of Heavy Tails: Properties, Emergence, and Estimation. Cambridge University Press.
Mendenhall, W., Beaver, R. J., & Beaver, B. M. (2023). Introduction to Probability and Statistics (15th Ed.). Cengage.
About Scott M. Graffius
Scott M. Graffius is a strategic transformation leader who drives AI, Agile, and broader business and technology initiatives to deliver measurable value across projects, programs, portfolios, and PMOs. He is an expert in the teamwork tradecraft of both human and human-AI teams, including the “exotic team dynamics” that emerge. He is also an authority on the temporal patterns of social media, including the half-life of audience engagement.
He’s a practitioner, researcher, thought leader, award-winning author, and keynote speaker who’s taken the stage at 96 conferences and other events across 25 countries.
He’s delivered over $2.3 billion in value for Fortune 500 companies and other leaders in technology, entertainment, financial services, healthcare, and beyond.
Businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities use Graffius and feature his work. Examples include Adobe, Bayer, Boston University, Ford, Gartner, Harvard Medical School, IEEE, Johns Hopkins University, Microsoft, MSN, National Academy of Sciences, Oracle, Pinterest Inc., Project Management Institute, UC San Diego, Verizon, Yale University, and others.
The following sections provide additional information on his experience, contributions, and influence.
Experience
Graffius heads the professional services firm Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions, along with its subsidiary Exceptional Agility. These consultancies offer strategic and tactical advisory, training, embedded expertise, and consulting services to the public, private, and government sectors. They help organizations enhance their capabilities and results in agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership, supporting innovation and driving competitive advantage. The consultancies confidently back services with a Delighted Client Guarantee™.
Graffius is a former VP of project management with a publicly traded provider of diverse consumer products and services over the Internet. Before that, he ran and supervised the delivery of projects and programs in public and private organizations with businesses ranging from e-commerce to advanced technology products and services, retail, manufacturing, entertainment, and more.
He has experience with consumer, business, reseller, government, and international markets.
Award-Winning Author
Graffius has authored three books.
- Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions, his first book, earned 17 awards.
- Agile Transformation: A Brief Story of How an Entertainment Company Developed New Capabilities and Unlocked Business Agility to Thrive in an Era of Rapid Change, his second book, was named one of the best Scrum books of all time by BookAuthority.
- Agile Protocol: The Transformation Ultimatum, his third book and his first work of fiction, was released in April 2025. The book trailer is on YouTube.
International Public Speaker
Organizations worldwide engage Graffius to present on tech (including AI), Agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership. He crafts and delivers unique and compelling talks and workshops. Graffius has conducted 96 sessions across 25 countries. Select examples of events include Agile Trends Gov, BSides (Newcastle Upon Tyne), Conf42 Quantum Computing, DevDays Europe, DevOps Institute, DevOpsDays (Geneva), Frug’Agile, IEEE, Microsoft, Scottish Summit, Scrum Alliance RSG (Nepal), Techstars, and W Love Games International Video Game Development Conference (Helsinki), and more.
With an average rating of 4.81 (on a scale of 1-5), sessions are highly valued.
The speaker engagement request form is here.
Thought Leadership and Influence
Prominent businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities have showcased Graffius and his contributions—spanning his books, talks, workshops, and beyond. Select examples include:
- Adobe,
- American Management Association,
- Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute,
- Bayer,
- BMC Software,
- Boston University,
- Broadcom,
- Cisco,
- Coburg University of Applied Sciences and Arts - Germany,
- Computer Weekly,
- Constructor University - Germany,
- Data Governance Success,
- Deimos Aerospace,
- DevOps Institute,
- Dropbox,
- EU's European Commission,
- Ford Motor Company,
- Gartner,
- GoDaddy,
- Harvard Medical School,
- Hasso Plattner Institute - Germany,
- IEEE,
- Innovation Project Management,
- Johns Hopkins University,
- Journal of Neurosurgery,
- Lam Research (Semiconductors),
- Leadership Worthy,
- Life Sciences Trainers and Educators Network,
- London South Bank University,
- Microsoft,
- MSN,
- NASSCOM,
- National Academy of Sciences,
- New Zealand Government,
- Oracle,
- Pinterest Inc.,
- Project Management Institute,
- Mary Raum (Professor of National Security Affairs, United States Naval War College),
- SANS Institute,
- SBG Neumark - Germany,
- Singapore Institute of Technology,
- Torrens University - Australia,
- TBS Switzerland,
- Tufts University,
- UC San Diego,
- UK Sports Institute,
- University of Galway - Ireland,
- US Department of Energy,
- US National Park Service,
- US Soccer,
- US Tennis Association,
- Verizon,
- Wrike,
- Yale University,
- and many others.
Graffius has played a key role in the Project Management Institute (PMI) in developing professional standards. He was a member of multiple teams that authored, reviewed, and produced:
- Practice Standard for Work Breakdown Structures—Second Edition.
- A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge—Sixth Edition.
- The Standard for Program Management—Fourth Edition.
- The Practice Standard for Project Estimating—Second Edition.
Additional details are here.
He was also a subject matter expert reviewer of content for the PMI’s Congress. Beyond the PMI, Graffius also served as a member of the review team for two of the Scrum Alliance’s Global Scrum Gatherings.
Acclaimed Authority on Teamwork Tradecraft
Graffius is a renowned authority on teamwork tradecraft. Informed by the research of Bruce W. Tuckman and Mary Ann C. Jensen, over 150 subsequent studies, and Graffius' first-hand professional experience with, and analysis of, team leadership and performance, Graffius created his "Phases of Team Development" intellectual property as a unique perspective and visual conveying the five phases of team development. First introduced in 2008 and periodically updated, his work provides a diagnostic and strategic guide for navigating team dynamics. It provides actionable insights for leaders across industries to develop high-performance teams. Its adoption by esteemed organizations such as Yale University, IEEE, Cisco, Microsoft, Ford, Oracle, Broadcom, the U.S. National Park Service, and the Journal of Neurosurgery, among others, highlights its utility and value, solidifying its status as an indispensable resource for elevating team performance and driving organizational excellence. In 2026, Graffius added human-AI teamwork—including the "exotic team dynamics" which emerge when advanced AI collaborates as a teammate—to his "Phases of Team Development."
The 2026 edition of Graffius' "Phases of Team Development" intellectual property is here.
Expert on Temporal Dynamics on Social Media Platforms
Graffius is also an authority on temporal dynamics on social media platforms. His "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research—first published in 2018 and updated annually—delivers a precise quantitative analysis of post longevity across digital platforms, utilizing advanced statistical techniques to determine mean half-life with precision. It establishes a solid empirical base, effectively highlighting the ephemeral nature of content within social media ecosystems. Referenced and applied by leading entities—such as Fast Company, GoDaddy, Journal of Hand Surgery (European Volume), Ministère de la Culture (French Ministry of Culture), Pinterest Inc., PNAS, and Telecommunications Policy, among others—his research exemplifies methodological rigor and sustained significance in the field of digital informatics.
The 2026 edition of Graffius "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research is here.
Education and Professional Certifications
Graffius has a bachelor’s degree in psychology with a focus in Human Factors. He holds eight professional certifications:
- Certified SAFe 6 Agilist (SA),
- Certified Scrum Professional - ScrumMaster (CSP-SM),
- Certified Scrum Professional - Product Owner (CSP-PO),
- Certified ScrumMaster (CSM),
- Certified Scrum Product Owner (CSPO),
- Project Management Professional (PMP),
- Lean Six Sigma Green Belt (LSSGB), and
- IT Service Management Foundation (ITIL).
He is an active member of the Scrum Alliance, the Project Management Institute (PMI), and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
Advancing AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Management
Scott M. Graffius continues to advance the fields of AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Management through his leadership, research, writing, and real-world impact. Businesses and other organizations leverage Graffius’ insights to drive their success.
Discover Scott’s Books
- Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions — Deliver Products in Short Cycles with Rapid Adaptation to Change, Fast Time-to-Market, and Continuous Improvement
- Agile Transformation: A Brief Story of How an Entertainment Company Developed New Capabilities and Unlocked Business Agility to Thrive in an Era of Rapid Change
- Agile Protocol: The Transformation Ultimatum
Connect with and follow Scott on LinkedIn, X, YouTube, Facebook, Threads, Bluesky, Mastodon, and ResearchGate.
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How to Cite This Article
Graffius, S. M. (2026, February 6). Most Valuable IT Certifications: Update for 2026. ScottGraffius.com. ScottGraffius.com. https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/deep-dive-on-engagement-pattern-for-social-media.html
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Coming soon
Content Acknowledgements
Names, marks, and content are the property of their respective owners.
Tags and Hashtags
- Social media engagement
- Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts
- Typical Engagement Distribution Pattern for Social Media Posts
- Content performance analytics
- Attention decay over time
- Long tail engagement
- Skewed unimodal distribution
- #SocialMediaAnalytics
- #ContentStrategy
- #DigitalMarketing
- #Engagement
- #DataScience
- #Statistics
- #SocialMediaResearch
Post-Publication Notes
If there are any supplements or updates to this article after the date of publication, they will appear here.
Copyright
Copyright © Scott M. Graffius. All rights reserved.
Content on this site—including text, images, videos, and data—may not be used for training or input into any artificial intelligence, machine learning, or automatized learning systems, or published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the express written permission of Scott M. Graffius.