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A Critical Analysis of COVID-19 Treatment Search Trends and Media Coverage Study Citing Scott M. Graffius' Work

30 March 2026

BY SCOTT M. GRAFFIUS | ScottGraffius.com

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Introduction

The medRxiv preprint paper, "Search Interest in Alleged COVID-19 Treatments During the Pandemic and the Impact of Mass News Media," examines the relationship between media coverage and public search behavior for three widely discussed treatments during the COVID-19 pandemic: hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin, and remdesivir.

That paper cites Scott M. Graffius' research. While a careful reading makes clear that Graffius' work is distinct from the study’s framing, methods, and conclusions, citations can sometimes create perceived alignment where none exists—especially for readers who may not examine the full context in detail. For that reason, and to proactively clarify any potential misunderstandings, Graffius provides the following objective, evidence-based assessment of the scientific paper and does not endorse the paper.

This article provides a critical analysis of the "Search Interest in Alleged COVID-19 Treatments During the Pandemic and the Impact of Mass News Media" paper, including its use of Scott M. Graffius' work.

Critical Analysis of Paper

1. Problematic Title Language

An issue appears in the title itself. The phrase "alleged COVID-19 treatments" may be interpreted as value-laden. While these interventions were the subject of significant debate regarding their efficacy against COVID-19, some were recommended and prescribed by licensed physicians during the pandemic. The terminology employed by the paper's authors may therefore be reasonably seen as attempting to influence the reader's interpretation at the outset.

2. Correlation vs. Causation

The study identifies associations between media coverage and Google search interest over time. However, at times it interprets these associations as directional influence—suggesting that media coverage may "drive" public interest. This is not fully supported by the methodology. Time-series correlations, even with lag structures, do not establish causality. Both media coverage and search activity are likely responding to shared external drivers, such as major news events, political statements, regulatory decisions, or social media amplification. Without a causal identification strategy (e.g., natural experiments or instrumental variables), conclusions about influence remain speculative.

3. Measurement Limitations

The study relies on two proxy measures: Google Trends data and Media Cloud article counts.

Google Trends provides normalized, relative search interest (scaled 0–100), not absolute search volume. Because Google Trends provides normalized (0–100) relative search interest rather than absolute volumes, interpretation requires caution. Reported differences may reflect relative scaling and baseline variation rather than absolute changes in search behavior.

Media Cloud data capture article frequency, but do not account for audience reach, prominence, engagement, or sentiment. Media Cloud data capture article frequency but do not account for audience reach, prominence, engagement, or sentiment, which may limit the interpretability of "media coverage" as a proxy for exposure.

Additionally, the use of third-party media bias ratings introduces subjective classifications that are not standardized scientific measures.

4. Model Specification and Confounding

The study employs zero-inflated negative binomial models with short lag structures. However, three issues warrant attention. First, the choice of lag intervals (same day, 1-day, and 2-day lags) is not accompanied by a clear theoretical justification, which may limit interpretability. Second, key confounders (such as major real-world events, policy announcements, and social media dynamics) are not incorporated, despite being likely drivers of both media coverage and search behavior. Third, the included covariates (political leaning, rurality, social vulnerability) are plausible but insufficient to address the broader causal landscape.

As a result, the models risk attributing effects to media coverage that may be driven by omitted variables.

5. Overstatement of Effect Sizes

Reported findings (e.g., large percentage increases in search interest following media coverage) may appear substantial in relative terms. Because the analysis relies on normalized Google Trends data and model-based estimates, interpretation should consider the underlying scaling and variability of the data, particularly outside peak periods.

6. Use of Exploratory and Qualitative Techniques

The study incorporates word clouds and co-occurrence analyses to characterize media content. These methods are descriptive and exploratory in nature, and while useful for contextualization, they do not provide the same level of statistical rigor as the primary analyses.

7. Strengths

While the study has several limitations and other issues, it has some strengths. Examples include the use of large datasets, transparent methodology and code availability, consideration of bidirectional dynamics, and relevance to public health communication.

8. Citation of Graffius' Work

The paper includes a citation to Scott M. Graffius' "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research. However, this reference appears in a limited context and does not reflect or align with the paper’s overall framing, methodological approach, interpretive lens, or conclusions regarding media influence and “alleged” treatments. Graffius does not endorse the paper.

Excerpts from the paper follow.

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The paper cited the 2024 edition of Graffius' work. A visual from the now-current (2026) edition is shown below and details are available here.

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Details including links to the 2024 and 2026 editions of Graffius' respective work are in the bibliography section of this article.

Conclusion

The study demonstrates that media coverage and public search behavior are temporally associated during certain major public health events. However, the evidence does not establish causal influence, and several methodological and interpretive limitations constrain the strength of its conclusions. In particular, reliance on proxy measures, limited control for confounding variables, and narrative framing choices contribute to an overextension of the findings.

A more accurate interpretation recognizes the study as evidence of correlation within a complex information ecosystem, rather than as definitive proof that media coverage causes changes in public behavior. The paper's findings do not justify policy or behavioral conclusions.

About the Authors of the Scientific Paper

The "Search interest in alleged COVID-19 treatments during the pandemic and the impact of mass news media paper" authors and their respective affiliations are:

Emily E Ricotta, PhD

Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, USA
Division of Intramural Research (DIR), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Bethesda, MD, USA
CompEpi Dispersed Volunteer Research Network, 401 Park Drive, Boston, MA, USA

Samantha Bents, BS

Division of Intramural Research (DIR), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Bethesda, MD, USA
CompEpi Dispersed Volunteer Research Network, Boston, MA, USA
Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health (NIH), Bethesda, MD, USA

Brendan Lawler, BS

CompEpi Dispersed Volunteer Research Network, Boston, MA, USA
Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA

Thomas Berkane, MS

CompEpi Dispersed Volunteer Research Network, Boston, MA, USA
Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA

Fausto A Bustos Carrillo, PhD

Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, USA

Brianna A Smith, PhD

CompEpi Dispersed Volunteer Research Network, Boston, MA, USA
Political Science, United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD, USA

Maimuna S Majumder, PhD

CompEpi Dispersed Volunteer Research Network, Boston, MA, USA
Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA

Bibliography

Ricotta, E. E., Bents, S., Lawler, B., Smith, B. A., & Majumder, M. S. (2024, November 22). Search interest in alleged COVID-19 treatments over the pandemic period: The impact of mass news media [Preprint]. medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.11.20.24317650

Graffius, S. M. (2024, January 1). Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts: Update for 2024. ScottGraffius.com. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.21043.60965

Graffius, S. M. (2026, January 23). Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts: Update for 2026. ScottGraffius.com. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.32407.43689

About Scott M. Graffius

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Scott M. Graffius is a strategic transformation leader who drives AI, Agile, and broader business and technology initiatives to deliver measurable value across projects, programs, portfolios, and PMOs. He is an expert in the teamwork tradecraft of both human and human-AI teams, including the “exotic team dynamics” that emerge. He is also an authority on the temporal patterns of social media, including the half-life of audience engagement.

He’s a practitioner, researcher, thought leader, award-winning author, and keynote speaker who’s taken the stage at 96 conferences and other events across 25 countries.

He’s delivered over $2.3 billion in value for Fortune 500 companies and other leaders in technology, entertainment, financial services, healthcare, and beyond.

Businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities use Graffius and feature his work. Examples include Adobe, Bayer, Boston University, Ford, Gartner, Harvard Medical School, IEEE, Johns Hopkins University, Microsoft, MSN, National Academy of Sciences, Oracle, Pinterest Inc., Project Management Institute, UC San Diego, Verizon, Yale University, and others.

The following sections provide additional information on his experience, contributions, and influence.

Experience

Graffius heads the professional services firm Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions, along with its subsidiary Exceptional Agility. These consultancies offer strategic and tactical advisory, training, embedded expertise, and consulting services to the public, private, and government sectors. They help organizations enhance their capabilities and results in agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership, supporting innovation and driving competitive advantage. The consultancies confidently back services with a Delighted Client Guarantee™.

Graffius is a former VP of project management with a publicly traded provider of diverse consumer products and services over the Internet. Before that, he ran and supervised the delivery of projects and programs in public and private organizations with businesses ranging from e-commerce to advanced technology products and services, retail, manufacturing, entertainment, and more.

He has experience with consumer, business, reseller, government, and international markets.

Award-Winning Author

Graffius has authored three books.

Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions, his first book, earned 17 awards.
Agile Transformation: A Brief Story of How an Entertainment Company Developed New Capabilities and Unlocked Business Agility to Thrive in an Era of Rapid Change, his second book, was named one of the best Scrum books of all time by BookAuthority.
Agile Protocol: The Transformation Ultimatum, his third book and his first work of fiction, was released in April 2025. The book trailer is on YouTube.

International Public Speaker

Organizations worldwide engage Graffius to present on tech (including AI), Agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership. He crafts and delivers unique and compelling talks and workshops. Graffius has conducted 97 sessions across 25 countries. Select examples of events include Agile Trends Gov, BSides (Newcastle Upon Tyne), Conf42 Quantum Computing, DevDays Europe, DevOps Institute, DevOpsDays (Geneva), Frug’Agile, IEEE, Microsoft, Scottish Summit, Scrum Alliance RSG (Nepal), Techstars, and W Love Games International Video Game Development Conference (Helsinki), and more.

With an average rating of 4.81 (on a scale of 1-5), sessions are highly valued.

The speaker engagement request form is here.

Thought Leadership and Influence

Prominent businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities have showcased Graffius and his contributions—spanning his books, talks, workshops, and beyond. Select examples include:

Adobe,
American Management Association,
Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute,
Bayer,
BMC Software,
Boston University,
Broadcom,
Cisco,
Coburg University of Applied Sciences and Arts - Germany,
Computer Weekly,
Constructor University - Germany,
Data Governance Success,
Deimos Aerospace,
DevOps Institute,
Dropbox,
EU's European Commission,
Ford Motor Company,
Gartner,
GoDaddy,
Harvard Medical School,
Hasso Plattner Institute - Germany,
IEEE,
Innovation Project Management,
Johns Hopkins University,
Journal of Neurosurgery,
Lam Research (Semiconductors),
Leadership Worthy,
Life Sciences Trainers and Educators Network,
London South Bank University,
Microsoft,
MSN,
NASSCOM,
National Academy of Sciences,
New Zealand Government,
Oracle,
Pinterest Inc.,
Project Management Institute,
Mary Raum (Professor of National Security Affairs, United States Naval War College),
SANS Institute,
SBG Neumark - Germany,
Singapore Institute of Technology,
Torrens University - Australia,
TBS Switzerland,
Tufts University,
UC San Diego,
UK Sports Institute,
University of Galway - Ireland,
US Department of Energy,
US National Park Service,
US Soccer,
US Tennis Association,
Verizon,
Wrike,
Yale University,
and many others.

Graffius has played a key role in the Project Management Institute (PMI) in developing professional standards. He was a member of multiple teams that authored, reviewed, and produced:

Practice Standard for Work Breakdown Structures—Second Edition.
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge—Sixth Edition.
The Standard for Program Management—Fourth Edition.
The Practice Standard for Project Estimating—Second Edition.

Additional details are here.

He was also a subject matter expert reviewer of content for the PMI’s Congress. Beyond the PMI, Graffius also served as a member of the review team for two of the Scrum Alliance’s Global Scrum Gatherings.

Acclaimed Authority on Teamwork Tradecraft

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Graffius is a renowned authority on teamwork tradecraft. Informed by the research of Bruce W. Tuckman and Mary Ann C. Jensen, over 150 subsequent studies, and Graffius' first-hand professional experience with, and analysis of, team leadership and performance, Graffius created his "Phases of Team Development" intellectual property as a unique perspective and visual conveying the five phases of team development. First introduced in 2008 and periodically updated, his work provides a diagnostic and strategic guide for navigating team dynamics. It provides actionable insights for leaders across industries to develop high-performance teams. Its adoption by esteemed organizations such as Yale University, IEEE, Cisco, Microsoft, Ford, Oracle, Broadcom, the U.S. National Park Service, and the Journal of Neurosurgery, among others, highlights its utility and value, solidifying its status as an indispensable resource for elevating team performance and driving organizational excellence. In 2026, Graffius added human-AI teamwork—including the "exotic team dynamics" which emerge when advanced AI collaborates as a teammate—to his "Phases of Team Development."

The 2026 edition of Graffius' "Phases of Team Development" intellectual property is here.

Expert on Temporal Dynamics on Social Media Platforms

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Graffius is also an authority on temporal dynamics on social media platforms. His "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research—first published in 2018 and updated annually—delivers a precise quantitative analysis of post longevity across digital platforms, utilizing advanced statistical techniques to determine mean half-life with precision. It establishes a solid empirical base, effectively highlighting the ephemeral nature of content within social media ecosystems. Referenced and applied by leading entities—such as Fast Company, GoDaddy, Journal of Hand Surgery (European Volume), Ministère de la Culture (French Ministry of Culture), Pinterest Inc., PNAS, and Telecommunications Policy, among others—his research exemplifies methodological rigor and sustained significance in the field of digital informatics.

The 2026 edition of Graffius "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research is here.

Education and Professional Certifications

Graffius has a bachelor’s degree in psychology with a focus in Human Factors. He holds eight professional certifications:

Certified SAFe 6 Agilist (SA),
Certified Scrum Professional - ScrumMaster (CSP-SM),
Certified Scrum Professional - Product Owner (CSP-PO),
Certified ScrumMaster (CSM),
Certified Scrum Product Owner (CSPO),
Project Management Professional (PMP),
Lean Six Sigma Green Belt (LSSGB), and
IT Service Management Foundation (ITIL).

He is an active member of the Scrum Alliance, the Project Management Institute (PMI), and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).

Advancing AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Management

Scott M. Graffius continues to advance the fields of AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Management through his leadership, research, writing, and real-world impact. Businesses and other organizations leverage Graffius’ insights to drive their success.

Discover Scott’s Books

Connect with and follow Scott on LinkedIn, X, YouTube, Facebook, Threads, Bluesky, Mastodon, and ResearchGate.

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List of Additional Articles

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How to Cite This Article

Graffius, S. M. (2026, March 30). A Critical Analysis of COVID-19 Treatment Search Trends and Media Coverage Study Citing Scott M. Graffius' Work. ScottGraffius.com. https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/critical-analysis-of-covid19-media-coverage-study.html

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Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

Coming soon

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Content Acknowledgements

Names, marks, and content are the property of their respective owners.

Emily E Ricotta, Samantha Bents, Brendan Lawler, Thomas Berkane, Fausto A Bustos Carrillo, Brianna A Smith, and Maimuna S Majumder are authors of paper, "Search interest in alleged COVID-19 treatments during the pandemic and the impact of mass news media." The paper cites "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research by Scott M. Graffius.

The following appears in the header of the paper: "medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.11.20.24317650; this version posted February 17, 2026. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available
for use under a CC0 license."

This article includes limited excerpts from the paper, attributed and used under fair use doctrine for purposes of news reporting, commentary, and analysis.

Graffius' "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" is copyright (c) Scott M. Graffius. All rights reserved.

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#BostonChildrensHospital
#CriticalAnalysis
#FogartyInternationalCenter
#HalfLifeOfSocialMeida
#Harvard
#HarvardMedicalSchool
#LifespanOfSocialMedia
#NationalInstitutesOfHealth
#NIH
#SocialMedia
#SocialMediaResarch
#UniformedServicesUniversityOfTheHealthSciences
#USNavalAcademy
#UnitedStatesNavalAcademy

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Post-Publication Notes

If there are any supplements or updates to this article after the date of publication, they will appear here.

Copyright

Copyright © Scott M. Graffius. All rights reserved.

Content on this site—including text, images, videos, and data—may not be used for training or input into any artificial intelligence, machine learning, or automatized learning systems, or published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the express written permission of Scott M. Graffius.

Tags: Boston Children’s Hospital • Critical analysis of medical paper • Critical analysis of scientific paper • Harvard Medical School • Scott M. Graffius • United States Naval Academy • Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences • Social Media Research • National Institutes of Health (NIH) • Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts • Fogarty International Center