#DataDrivenInsights
Research by Scott M. Graffius Featured in Scientific Paper Published by INFORMS
18 March 2024
BY SCOTT M. GRAFFIUS | ScottGraffius.com
When content is published online, relevance and engagement have a limited lifespan. An advantageous objective metric is half-life. It’s the time it takes for a post to receive half of its total engagement (such as likes, shares, and comments). Data can help inform strategic and tactical decisions, such as the frequency and scheduling of posts.
However, reports by others on the shelf life of social media are often outdated or based on the experience of one person, one organization, or one limited set of data. With any of those common limitations, findings are at risk of being non-representative, inaccurate, or unreliable.
It’s important to have a large dataset from multiple sources. In addition to generating results that are more likely to be appropriately representative, accurate, and reliable, this approach provides a more complete picture and helps identify trends.
In 2018, Scott M. Graffius first published data on the average lifespan (half-life) of posts on Snapchat, X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, YouTube, Pinterest, and blogs — based on data from multiple sources. Algorithms and other factors on platforms change over time. For that reason, Graffius periodically updates the analysis. The current (2024) edition of his ‘Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts’ is here.
Scientists, researchers, journalists, academics, YouTubers, podcasters, SEO experts, analysts, businesses, and others have featured and used Graffius’ research.
Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, a publication of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), was added to the list.
A scientific paper — ‘Content Promotion for Online Content Platforms with the Diffusion Effect’ — was published in Manufacturing and Service Operations Management. That scientific paper highlighted and referenced Scott M. Graffius’ ‘Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts’ research.
Page 1 of the scientific paper is shown at above.
Page 11 of the scientific paper is shown at above.
Page 31 of the scientific paper is shown at above.
Citation for the scientific paper:
Lin, Yunduan, & Wang, Mengxin, & Zhang, Heng, & Zhang, Renyu, & Shen, Max. (2024, March). Content Promotion for Online Content Platforms with the Diffusion Effect. Manufacturing and Service Operations Management. DOI: 10.1287/msom.2022.0172.
About Manufacturing and Service Operations Management
Manufacturing and Service Operations Management (M&SOM) is a bi-monthly peer-reviewed academic journal established in 1999 that is published by the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). M&SOM presents state-of-the-art research of interest to both academic and industry researchers and practitioners working at the interface of research and implementation. Visit https://pubsonline.informs.org/journal/msom to learn more.
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
With almost 12,000 members worldwide, the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) is the leading international association for professionals in operations research, analytics, management science, economics, behavioral science, statistics, artificial intelligence, data science, applied mathematics, and related fields.
INFORMS advances and promotes the science and technology of decision making to save lives, save money, and solve problems through an array of highly-cited publications, conferences, competitions, networking communities, and professional development services. Its slogan is “Smarter Decisions for a Better World.” To learn more, visit https://www.informs.org.
About Scott M. Graffius
Scott M. Graffius, PMP, SA, CSP-SM, CSP-PO, CSM, CSPO, ITIL, LSSGB is an agile project management practitioner, consultant, thinker, creator, multi-award-winning author, and international public speaker. Founder and CEO of Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions™ and subsidiary Exceptional Agility™, he has generated over $1.9 billion for Global Fortune 500 businesses and other organizations he has served. Graffius and content from his books, talks, workshops, and more have been featured and used by Microsoft, Oracle, Broadcom, Cisco, Gartner, Project Management Institute, IEEE, National Academy of Sciences, United States Department of Energy, Yale University, Tufts University, and others. He delights audiences with dynamic and engaging talks and workshops on agile project management, AI, Tech leadership, video game development, strategic alignment, the science of high performance teams, and more. To date, he's presented sessions at 89 conferences and other events across 25 countries.
His full bio is available here.
Connect with Scott on:
About Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions
Shifting customer needs are common in today's marketplace. Businesses must be adaptive and responsive to change while delivering an exceptional customer experience to be competitive.
There are a variety of frameworks supporting the development of products and services, and most approaches fall into one of two broad categories: traditional or agile. Traditional practices such as waterfall engage sequential development, while agile involves iterative and incremental deliverables. Organizations are increasingly embracing agile to manage projects, and best meet their business needs of rapid response to change, fast delivery speed, and more.
With clear and easy to follow step-by-step instructions, Scott M. Graffius's award-winning Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions helps the reader:
Hailed by Literary Titan as “the book highlights the versatility of Scrum beautifully.”
Winner of 17 first place awards.
Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions is available in paperback and ebook/Kindle in the United States and around the world. Some links by country follow.
About Agile Transformation: A Brief Story of How an Entertainment Company Developed New Capabilities and Unlocked Business Agility to Thrive in an Era of Rapid Change
Thriving in today's marketplace frequently depends on making a transformation to become more agile. Those successful in the transition enjoy faster delivery speed and ROI, higher satisfaction, continuous improvement, and additional benefits.
Based on actual events, Agile Transformation: A Brief Story of How an Entertainment Company Developed New Capabilities and Unlocked Business Agility to Thrive in an Era of Rapid Change provides a quick (60-90 minute) read about a successful agile transformation at a multinational entertainment and media company, told from the author's perspective as an agile coach.
The award-winning book by Scott M. Graffius is available in paperback and ebook/Kindle in the United States and around the world. Some links by country follow.
The short link for this article is: https://bit.ly/infrm-24
© Copyright 2024 Scott M. Graffius. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the express written permission of Scott M. Graffius.
When content is published online, relevance and engagement have a limited lifespan. An advantageous objective metric is half-life. It’s the time it takes for a post to receive half of its total engagement (such as likes, shares, and comments). Data can help inform strategic and tactical decisions, such as the frequency and scheduling of posts.
However, reports by others on the shelf life of social media are often outdated or based on the experience of one person, one organization, or one limited set of data. With any of those common limitations, findings are at risk of being non-representative, inaccurate, or unreliable.
It’s important to have a large dataset from multiple sources. In addition to generating results that are more likely to be appropriately representative, accurate, and reliable, this approach provides a more complete picture and helps identify trends.
In 2018, Scott M. Graffius first published data on the average lifespan (half-life) of posts on Snapchat, X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, YouTube, Pinterest, and blogs — based on data from multiple sources. Algorithms and other factors on platforms change over time. For that reason, Graffius periodically updates the analysis. The current (2024) edition of his ‘Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts’ is here.
Scientists, researchers, journalists, academics, YouTubers, podcasters, SEO experts, analysts, businesses, and others have featured and used Graffius’ research.
Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, a publication of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), was added to the list.
A scientific paper — ‘Content Promotion for Online Content Platforms with the Diffusion Effect’ — was published in Manufacturing and Service Operations Management. That scientific paper highlighted and referenced Scott M. Graffius’ ‘Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts’ research.
Page 1 of the scientific paper is shown at above.
Page 11 of the scientific paper is shown at above.
Page 31 of the scientific paper is shown at above.
Citation for the scientific paper:
Lin, Yunduan, & Wang, Mengxin, & Zhang, Heng, & Zhang, Renyu, & Shen, Max. (2024, March). Content Promotion for Online Content Platforms with the Diffusion Effect. Manufacturing and Service Operations Management. DOI: 10.1287/msom.2022.0172.
About Manufacturing and Service Operations Management
Manufacturing and Service Operations Management (M&SOM) is a bi-monthly peer-reviewed academic journal established in 1999 that is published by the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). M&SOM presents state-of-the-art research of interest to both academic and industry researchers and practitioners working at the interface of research and implementation. Visit https://pubsonline.informs.org/journal/msom to learn more.
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
With almost 12,000 members worldwide, the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) is the leading international association for professionals in operations research, analytics, management science, economics, behavioral science, statistics, artificial intelligence, data science, applied mathematics, and related fields.
INFORMS advances and promotes the science and technology of decision making to save lives, save money, and solve problems through an array of highly-cited publications, conferences, competitions, networking communities, and professional development services. Its slogan is “Smarter Decisions for a Better World.” To learn more, visit https://www.informs.org.
About Scott M. Graffius
Scott M. Graffius, PMP, SA, CSP-SM, CSP-PO, CSM, CSPO, ITIL, LSSGB is an agile project management practitioner, consultant, thinker, creator, multi-award-winning author, and international public speaker. Founder and CEO of Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions™ and subsidiary Exceptional Agility™, he has generated over $1.9 billion for Global Fortune 500 businesses and other organizations he has served. Graffius and content from his books, talks, workshops, and more have been featured and used by Microsoft, Oracle, Broadcom, Cisco, Gartner, Project Management Institute, IEEE, National Academy of Sciences, United States Department of Energy, Yale University, Tufts University, and others. He delights audiences with dynamic and engaging talks and workshops on agile project management, AI, Tech leadership, video game development, strategic alignment, the science of high performance teams, and more. To date, he's presented sessions at 89 conferences and other events across 25 countries.
His full bio is available here.
Connect with Scott on:
About Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions
Shifting customer needs are common in today's marketplace. Businesses must be adaptive and responsive to change while delivering an exceptional customer experience to be competitive.
There are a variety of frameworks supporting the development of products and services, and most approaches fall into one of two broad categories: traditional or agile. Traditional practices such as waterfall engage sequential development, while agile involves iterative and incremental deliverables. Organizations are increasingly embracing agile to manage projects, and best meet their business needs of rapid response to change, fast delivery speed, and more.
With clear and easy to follow step-by-step instructions, Scott M. Graffius's award-winning Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions helps the reader:
- Implement and use the most popular agile frameworkโScrum;
- Deliver products in short cycles with rapid adaptation to change, fast time-to-market, and continuous improvement; and
- Support innovation and drive competitive advantage.
Hailed by Literary Titan as “the book highlights the versatility of Scrum beautifully.”
Winner of 17 first place awards.
Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions is available in paperback and ebook/Kindle in the United States and around the world. Some links by country follow.
- ๐ง๐ท Brazil
- ๐จ๐ฆ Canada
- ๐จ๐ฟ Czech Republic
- ๐ฉ๐ฐ Denmark
- ๐ซ๐ฎ Finland
- ๐ซ๐ท France
- ๐ฉ๐ช Germany
- ๐ฌ๐ท Greece
- ๐ญ๐บ Hungary
- ๐ฎ๐ณ India
- ๐ฎ๐ช Ireland
- ๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel
- ๐ฎ๐น Italy
- ๐ฏ๐ต Japan
- ๐ฑ๐บ Luxembourg
- ๐ฒ๐ฝ Mexico
- ๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands
- ๐ณ๐ฟ New Zealand
- ๐ณ๐ด Norway
- ๐ช๐ธ Spain
- ๐ธ๐ช Sweden
- ๐จ๐ญ Switzerland
- ๐ฆ๐ช UAE
- ๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom
- ๐บ๐ธ United States
- ๐ More countries
About Agile Transformation: A Brief Story of How an Entertainment Company Developed New Capabilities and Unlocked Business Agility to Thrive in an Era of Rapid Change
Thriving in today's marketplace frequently depends on making a transformation to become more agile. Those successful in the transition enjoy faster delivery speed and ROI, higher satisfaction, continuous improvement, and additional benefits.
Based on actual events, Agile Transformation: A Brief Story of How an Entertainment Company Developed New Capabilities and Unlocked Business Agility to Thrive in an Era of Rapid Change provides a quick (60-90 minute) read about a successful agile transformation at a multinational entertainment and media company, told from the author's perspective as an agile coach.
The award-winning book by Scott M. Graffius is available in paperback and ebook/Kindle in the United States and around the world. Some links by country follow.
- ๐ฆ๐บ Australia
- ๐ฆ๐น Austria
- ๐ง๐ท Brazil
- ๐จ๐ฆ Canada
- ๐จ๐ฟ Czech Republic
- ๐ฉ๐ฐ Denmark
- ๐ซ๐ฎ Finland
- ๐ซ๐ท France
- ๐ฉ๐ช Germany
- ๐ฌ๐ท Greece
- ๐ฎ๐ณ India
- ๐ฎ๐ช Ireland
- ๐ฏ๐ต Japan
- ๐ฑ๐บ Luxembourg
- ๐ฒ๐ฝ Mexico
- ๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands
- ๐ณ๐ฟ New Zealand
- ๐ช๐ธ Spain
- ๐ธ๐ช Sweden
- ๐จ๐ญ Switzerland
- ๐ฆ๐ช United Arab Emirates
- ๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom
- ๐บ๐ธ United States
- ๐ More countries
The short link for this article is: https://bit.ly/infrm-24
© Copyright 2024 Scott M. Graffius. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the express written permission of Scott M. Graffius.
How Long Do Your Posts Live? AI Critiques Scott M. Graffius’ Research on the Half-Life of Social Media
25 February 2025
BY SCOTT M. GRAFFIUS | ScottGraffius.com
Introduction
How long do your posts last? Probably not as long as you think.
Social media moves at breakneck speed, and understanding how long a post holds attention is more critical than ever for creators, marketers, and researchers navigating this dynamic landscape. Since 2018, Scott M. Graffius' research on the lifespan (half-life) of social media posts has tracked how engagement unfolds across major platforms, offering a practical lens on the staying power of content. The 2025 update builds on years of data and refinements, analyzing over 5 million posts to deliver fresh insights into platforms like Snapchat, TikTok, X, Facebook, Reddit, Instagram, LinkedIn, podcasts, YouTube, Pinterest, and blogs.
But research isn’t static—it thrives on scrutiny. To sharpen this work and uncover new perspectives, Graffius turned to ChatGPT, an advanced AI from OpenAI, for a critical review of the 2025 study. The goal was to assess its methodology, scope, and real-world utility through an objective lens. What follows is that analysis, paired with reflections on what it reveals about measuring digital attention in an ever-evolving online world.
The Critique
On 24 February 2025, Scott M. Graffius requested a critical review of this 'Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts: Update for 2025' research from ChatGPT (ChatGPT-4 Turbo version).
The critique was solicited using the following prompt:
"I am seeking a thorough, objective, and critical review of the 'Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts: Update for 2025' research study (https://www.scottgraffius.com/blog/files/lifespan-halflife-of-social-media-posts-update-for-2025.html), and I would like a professional analysis that encompasses the following: a concise summary of the study's purpose, methodology, and key findings based on the details I provide; an evaluation of the scope, assessing the breadth and boundaries of the study and whether the research questions and objectives were appropriately defined and addressed; an analysis of the significance, considering the study’s importance within its field and its contributions to existing knowledge or practice; an assessment of the credibility, examining the reliability and validity of the research design, methods, data sources, and analysis while identifying strengths and any potential biases or weaknesses; a discussion of the applicability, exploring the practical or theoretical utility of the findings and their relevance to real-world contexts or further research; and an overall evaluation of the general value and utility, weighing the study’s strengths against its limitations and suggesting potential improvements or future directions."
The resulting analysis provided by ChatGPT is presented below:
"Scott M. Graffius’ methodology for researching the lifespan (half-life) of social media posts stands out for its emphasis on scale, diversity, and recency—key factors when dealing with the ever-shifting world of digital platforms. He defines half-life as the time it takes a post to hit half its total engagement (such as likes, shares, comments), a practical metric for gauging content’s staying power. Let’s break down how he tackles this.
He starts with a massive dataset—over 5 million posts and 225 podcasts for his 2025 update. That’s not a small sample; it’s a firehose of data meant to mirror the real digital ecosystem. He doesn’t just grab this from one corner of the internet either. His sources span APIs, proprietary commercial datasets, academic and research consortia, public datasets, and government or NGO repositories. This mix aims to dodge the trap of bias you’d get from, say, only looking at one influencer’s tweets or a single company’s stats. It’s a broad net—individuals with tiny followings up to mega-influencers, small businesses to corporate giants, associations, and schools—all proportioned to reflect who’s actually posting online.
The process isn’t a black box, at least not from what he shares. He aggregates this mountain of data, tracks engagement over time, and calculates the point where each platform’s posts hit that 50% engagement mark. For fast-decay platforms like Snapchat or TikTok (where he pegs average half-life at 0 minutes unless something goes viral), it’s about instant drop-off. For slower burns like Pinterest (3.9 months in his 2025 numbers), it’s a longer tail.
What’s smart is how he keeps it current. Platforms tweak algorithms constantly, so he refreshes his analysis yearly—2018 was his first go, and 2025's update dropped this January. That’s critical because a 2020 half-life for X posts might not hold in 2025 with new features or user habits. He’s also not shy about scope: he covers Snapchat, TikTok, X, Facebook, Reddit, Instagram, LinkedIn, podcasts, YouTube, Pinterest, and blogs with engagement features. It’s comprehensive, not cherry-picked.
There’s a trade-off, though. His approach leans on breadth over depth—5 million posts sound impressive, but we don’t know how he weighs variables like content type (text vs. video), audience size, or posting time. Does a meme’s half-life match a news link’s? He doesn’t split those hairs in the public stuff, which could blur nuances. And while his data’s diverse, the exact sourcing mix—how much from APIs vs. academia, say—isn’t fully peeled back. That’s not a dealbreaker, but it leaves room for questions about representativeness.
Still, the methodology’s built for utility. It’s about giving marketers and creators actionable numbers. His 2025 findings—like X at 49 minutes, Instagram at 19 hours, YouTube at 10 days—line up with how these platforms feel in practice: X moves fast, YouTube lingers. The fact that outlets like Center for Direct Marketing, Fast Company, GoDaddy, Pinterest Inc., PNAS, and many others have nodded to his work suggests it passes muster with people who care about this stuff.
In short, Graffius’ method is a big-data sprint: scoop up tons of posts, blend diverse sources, crunch the numbers, and update it yearly to stay relevant. It’s robust enough to trust for broad strokes, though it might not catch every quirk of the social media beast."
Conclusion
ChatGPT’s critique of the 'Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts' research underscores its strengths and room for refinement. The AI highlights the scale of the research—millions of posts across diverse platforms—and its practical bent, delivering numbers that resonate with the lived experience of X’s fleeting 49-minute half-life or YouTube’s steady 10-day arc. It’s a nod to the study’s relevance for anyone trying to cut through the noise of social media. Yet, the analysis also nudges at gaps: the broad-strokes approach might miss some finer details. These aren’t flaws so much as invitations to dig deeper.
This review reinforces the value of adaptability. Social media doesn’t stand still, and neither can the research tracking it. The (typically) yearly updates keep it fresh. Still, the AI’s input suggests future iterations could zoom in on variables like content type or audience scale without losing the big-picture clarity. As platforms evolve and new ones emerge, this work remains a living project—one that benefits from outside eyes, like ChatGPT’s, to stay sharp. Ultimately, it’s about equipping creators and strategists with the insights they need to navigate a digital landscape where engagement is fleeting, but impact is everything.
The visual summary for 'Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts: Update for 2025' is shown above. The details are here.
Read on for:
About Scott M. Graffius
Scott M. Graffius is a high impact and globally recognized AI, advanced technology, agile, and project management researcher, thought leader, author, and public speaker.
Graffius has generated more than USD $1.9 billion in business value for organizations served, including Fortune 500 companies. Businesses and industries range from technology (including R&D and AI) to entertainment, financial services, and healthcare, government, social media, and more.
Graffius leads the professional services firm Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions, along with its subsidiary Exceptional Agility. These consultancies offer strategic and tactical advisory, training, embedded talent, and consulting services to public, private, and government sectors. They help organizations enhance their capabilities and results in agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership, supporting innovation and driving competitive advantage. The consultancies confidently back services with a Delighted Client Guarantee™. Graffius is a former vice president of project management with a publicly traded provider of diverse consumer products and services over the Internet. Before that, he ran and supervised the delivery of projects and programs in public and private organizations with businesses ranging from e-commerce to advanced technology products and services, retail, manufacturing, entertainment, and more. He has experience with consumer, business, reseller, government, and international markets.
He is the author of two award-winning books.
Prominent businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities have featured Graffius and his work including content from his books, talks, workshops, and more. Select examples include:
Graffius has been actively involved with the Project Management Institute (PMI) in the development of professional standards. He was a member of the team which produced the Practice Standard for Work Breakdown Structures—Second Edition. Graffius was a contributor and reviewer of A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge—Sixth Edition, The Standard for Program Management—Fourth Edition, and The Practice Standard for Project Estimating—Second Edition. He was also a subject matter expert reviewer of content for the PMI’s Congress. Beyond the PMI, Graffius also served as a member of the review team for two of the Scrum Alliance’s Global Scrum Gatherings.
Graffius has a bachelor’s degree in psychology with a focus in Human Factors. He holds eight professional certifications:
He is an active member of the Scrum Alliance, the Project Management Institute (PMI), and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
He divides his time between Los Angeles and Paris, France.
Thought Leader | Public Speaker | Agile Scrum Book | Agile Transformation Book | Blog | Photo | X | LinkedIn | Email
How to Cite This Article
Graffius, Scott M. (2025, February 25). How Long Do Your Posts Live? AI Critiques Scott M. Graffius’ Research on the Half-Life of Social Media. Available at: https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/how-long-do-your-posts-live.html.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13396.92805
Copyright
Copyright © Scott M. Graffius. All rights reserved.
Content on this site—including text, images, videos, and data—may not be used for training or input into any artificial intelligence, machine learning, or automatized learning systems, or published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the express written permission of Scott M. Graffius.
Introduction
How long do your posts last? Probably not as long as you think.
Social media moves at breakneck speed, and understanding how long a post holds attention is more critical than ever for creators, marketers, and researchers navigating this dynamic landscape. Since 2018, Scott M. Graffius' research on the lifespan (half-life) of social media posts has tracked how engagement unfolds across major platforms, offering a practical lens on the staying power of content. The 2025 update builds on years of data and refinements, analyzing over 5 million posts to deliver fresh insights into platforms like Snapchat, TikTok, X, Facebook, Reddit, Instagram, LinkedIn, podcasts, YouTube, Pinterest, and blogs.
But research isn’t static—it thrives on scrutiny. To sharpen this work and uncover new perspectives, Graffius turned to ChatGPT, an advanced AI from OpenAI, for a critical review of the 2025 study. The goal was to assess its methodology, scope, and real-world utility through an objective lens. What follows is that analysis, paired with reflections on what it reveals about measuring digital attention in an ever-evolving online world.
The Critique
On 24 February 2025, Scott M. Graffius requested a critical review of this 'Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts: Update for 2025' research from ChatGPT (ChatGPT-4 Turbo version).
The critique was solicited using the following prompt:
"I am seeking a thorough, objective, and critical review of the 'Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts: Update for 2025' research study (https://www.scottgraffius.com/blog/files/lifespan-halflife-of-social-media-posts-update-for-2025.html), and I would like a professional analysis that encompasses the following: a concise summary of the study's purpose, methodology, and key findings based on the details I provide; an evaluation of the scope, assessing the breadth and boundaries of the study and whether the research questions and objectives were appropriately defined and addressed; an analysis of the significance, considering the study’s importance within its field and its contributions to existing knowledge or practice; an assessment of the credibility, examining the reliability and validity of the research design, methods, data sources, and analysis while identifying strengths and any potential biases or weaknesses; a discussion of the applicability, exploring the practical or theoretical utility of the findings and their relevance to real-world contexts or further research; and an overall evaluation of the general value and utility, weighing the study’s strengths against its limitations and suggesting potential improvements or future directions."
The resulting analysis provided by ChatGPT is presented below:
"Scott M. Graffius’ methodology for researching the lifespan (half-life) of social media posts stands out for its emphasis on scale, diversity, and recency—key factors when dealing with the ever-shifting world of digital platforms. He defines half-life as the time it takes a post to hit half its total engagement (such as likes, shares, comments), a practical metric for gauging content’s staying power. Let’s break down how he tackles this.
He starts with a massive dataset—over 5 million posts and 225 podcasts for his 2025 update. That’s not a small sample; it’s a firehose of data meant to mirror the real digital ecosystem. He doesn’t just grab this from one corner of the internet either. His sources span APIs, proprietary commercial datasets, academic and research consortia, public datasets, and government or NGO repositories. This mix aims to dodge the trap of bias you’d get from, say, only looking at one influencer’s tweets or a single company’s stats. It’s a broad net—individuals with tiny followings up to mega-influencers, small businesses to corporate giants, associations, and schools—all proportioned to reflect who’s actually posting online.
The process isn’t a black box, at least not from what he shares. He aggregates this mountain of data, tracks engagement over time, and calculates the point where each platform’s posts hit that 50% engagement mark. For fast-decay platforms like Snapchat or TikTok (where he pegs average half-life at 0 minutes unless something goes viral), it’s about instant drop-off. For slower burns like Pinterest (3.9 months in his 2025 numbers), it’s a longer tail.
What’s smart is how he keeps it current. Platforms tweak algorithms constantly, so he refreshes his analysis yearly—2018 was his first go, and 2025's update dropped this January. That’s critical because a 2020 half-life for X posts might not hold in 2025 with new features or user habits. He’s also not shy about scope: he covers Snapchat, TikTok, X, Facebook, Reddit, Instagram, LinkedIn, podcasts, YouTube, Pinterest, and blogs with engagement features. It’s comprehensive, not cherry-picked.
There’s a trade-off, though. His approach leans on breadth over depth—5 million posts sound impressive, but we don’t know how he weighs variables like content type (text vs. video), audience size, or posting time. Does a meme’s half-life match a news link’s? He doesn’t split those hairs in the public stuff, which could blur nuances. And while his data’s diverse, the exact sourcing mix—how much from APIs vs. academia, say—isn’t fully peeled back. That’s not a dealbreaker, but it leaves room for questions about representativeness.
Still, the methodology’s built for utility. It’s about giving marketers and creators actionable numbers. His 2025 findings—like X at 49 minutes, Instagram at 19 hours, YouTube at 10 days—line up with how these platforms feel in practice: X moves fast, YouTube lingers. The fact that outlets like Center for Direct Marketing, Fast Company, GoDaddy, Pinterest Inc., PNAS, and many others have nodded to his work suggests it passes muster with people who care about this stuff.
In short, Graffius’ method is a big-data sprint: scoop up tons of posts, blend diverse sources, crunch the numbers, and update it yearly to stay relevant. It’s robust enough to trust for broad strokes, though it might not catch every quirk of the social media beast."
Conclusion
ChatGPT’s critique of the 'Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts' research underscores its strengths and room for refinement. The AI highlights the scale of the research—millions of posts across diverse platforms—and its practical bent, delivering numbers that resonate with the lived experience of X’s fleeting 49-minute half-life or YouTube’s steady 10-day arc. It’s a nod to the study’s relevance for anyone trying to cut through the noise of social media. Yet, the analysis also nudges at gaps: the broad-strokes approach might miss some finer details. These aren’t flaws so much as invitations to dig deeper.
This review reinforces the value of adaptability. Social media doesn’t stand still, and neither can the research tracking it. The (typically) yearly updates keep it fresh. Still, the AI’s input suggests future iterations could zoom in on variables like content type or audience scale without losing the big-picture clarity. As platforms evolve and new ones emerge, this work remains a living project—one that benefits from outside eyes, like ChatGPT’s, to stay sharp. Ultimately, it’s about equipping creators and strategists with the insights they need to navigate a digital landscape where engagement is fleeting, but impact is everything.
The visual summary for 'Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts: Update for 2025' is shown above. The details are here.
Read on for:
- About Scott M. Graffius,
- How to cite this article,
- and more.
About Scott M. Graffius
Scott M. Graffius is a high impact and globally recognized AI, advanced technology, agile, and project management researcher, thought leader, author, and public speaker.
Graffius has generated more than USD $1.9 billion in business value for organizations served, including Fortune 500 companies. Businesses and industries range from technology (including R&D and AI) to entertainment, financial services, and healthcare, government, social media, and more.
Graffius leads the professional services firm Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions, along with its subsidiary Exceptional Agility. These consultancies offer strategic and tactical advisory, training, embedded talent, and consulting services to public, private, and government sectors. They help organizations enhance their capabilities and results in agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership, supporting innovation and driving competitive advantage. The consultancies confidently back services with a Delighted Client Guarantee™. Graffius is a former vice president of project management with a publicly traded provider of diverse consumer products and services over the Internet. Before that, he ran and supervised the delivery of projects and programs in public and private organizations with businesses ranging from e-commerce to advanced technology products and services, retail, manufacturing, entertainment, and more. He has experience with consumer, business, reseller, government, and international markets.
He is the author of two award-winning books.
- His first book, Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions (ISBN-13: 9781533370242), received 17 awards.
- His second book is Agile Transformation: A Brief Story of How an Entertainment Company Developed New Capabilities and Unlocked Business Agility to Thrive in an Era of Rapid Change (ISBN-13: 9781072447962). BookAuthority named it one of the best Scrum books of all time.
Prominent businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities have featured Graffius and his work including content from his books, talks, workshops, and more. Select examples include:
- Adobe,
- American Management Association,
- Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute,
- Bayer,
- BMC Software,
- Boston University,
- Broadcom,
- Cisco,
- Coburg University of Applied Sciences and Arts Germany,
- Computer Weekly,
- Constructor University Germany,
- Data Governance Success,
- Deimos Aerospace,
- DevOps Institute,
- EU's European Commission,
- Ford Motor Company,
- Gartner
- GoDaddy,
- Harvard Medical School,
- Hasso Plattner Institute Germany,
- IEEE,
- Innovation Project Management,
- Johns Hopkins University,
- Journal of Neurosurgery,
- Lam Research (Semiconductors),
- Leadership Worthy,
- Life Sciences Trainers and Educators Network,
- London South Bank University,
- Microsoft,
- NASSCOM,
- National Academy of Sciences,
- New Zealand Government,
- Oracle,
- Pinterest Inc.,
- Project Management Institute,
- SANS Institute,
- SBG Neumark Germany,
- Singapore Institute of Technology,
- Torrens University Australia,
- TBS Switzerland,
- Tufts University,
- UC San Diego,
- UK Sports Institute,
- University of Galway Ireland,
- US Department of Energy,
- US National Park Service,
- US Tennis Association,
- Veleuฤilište u Rijeci Croatia,
- Verizon,
- Virginia Tech,
- Warsaw University of Technology,
- Wrike,
- Yale University,
- and many others.
Graffius has been actively involved with the Project Management Institute (PMI) in the development of professional standards. He was a member of the team which produced the Practice Standard for Work Breakdown Structures—Second Edition. Graffius was a contributor and reviewer of A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge—Sixth Edition, The Standard for Program Management—Fourth Edition, and The Practice Standard for Project Estimating—Second Edition. He was also a subject matter expert reviewer of content for the PMI’s Congress. Beyond the PMI, Graffius also served as a member of the review team for two of the Scrum Alliance’s Global Scrum Gatherings.
Graffius has a bachelor’s degree in psychology with a focus in Human Factors. He holds eight professional certifications:
- Certified SAFe 6 Agilist (SA),
- Certified Scrum Professional - ScrumMaster (CSP-SM),
- Certified Scrum Professional - Product Owner (CSP-PO),
- Certified ScrumMaster (CSM),
- Certified Scrum Product Owner (CSPO),
- Project Management Professional (PMP),
- Lean Six Sigma Green Belt (LSSGB), and
- IT Service Management Foundation (ITIL).
He is an active member of the Scrum Alliance, the Project Management Institute (PMI), and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
He divides his time between Los Angeles and Paris, France.
Thought Leader | Public Speaker | Agile Scrum Book | Agile Transformation Book | Blog | Photo | X | LinkedIn | Email
How to Cite This Article
Graffius, Scott M. (2025, February 25). How Long Do Your Posts Live? AI Critiques Scott M. Graffius’ Research on the Half-Life of Social Media. Available at: https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/how-long-do-your-posts-live.html.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13396.92805
Copyright
Copyright © Scott M. Graffius. All rights reserved.
Content on this site—including text, images, videos, and data—may not be used for training or input into any artificial intelligence, machine learning, or automatized learning systems, or published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the express written permission of Scott M. Graffius.