Happiness and Satisfaction
The Silver Medal Paradox: Why Coming in Third Can Feel Better Than Coming in Second
09 November 2026
BY SCOTT M. GRAFFIUS | ScottGraffius.com
Recommended Citation
Graffius, S. M. (2026, November 9). The Silver Medal Paradox: Why Coming in Third Can Feel Better Than Coming in Second. ScottGraffius.com. https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/silver-medal-paradox.html
About This Article
Source information and links for materials cited are provided in the References section.
Imagine three athletes standing on an Olympic podium. One has just won gold, another silver, and the third bronze. The silver medalist finished ahead of the bronze medalist. Yet research suggests the bronze medalist may be happier.
How can coming in third feel better than coming in second?
The answer reveals something fascinating about human psychology. We don't evaluate success solely by what we achieve. We also evaluate it against what might have happened.
In a landmark 1995 study, psychologists Victoria Husted Medvec, Scott F. Madey, and Thomas Gilovich examined athletes' emotional reactions at the 1992 Summer Olympics. They found that bronze medalists tended to appear happier than silver medalists, both immediately after competition and on the medal stand.
The researchers proposed a simple explanation. Silver medalists may think, “I almost won gold.” Bronze medalists may think, “At least I won a medal.”
One athlete focuses on the achievement just out of reach. The other focuses on the disappointment narrowly avoided.
The difference is striking. Both athletes have accomplished something exceptional, yet their reactions may be shaped by entirely different comparisons. (Medvec, Madey, and Gilovich, 1995)
Psychologists call this counterfactual thinking: imagining alternatives to what actually happened.
We do it constantly. After a job interview, we wonder whether a better answer might have secured the position. After buying something, we wonder whether another option would have been better. After a close competition, we replay the decisive moments and imagine a different outcome.
Counterfactual thinking can be useful. It helps us learn, prepare, and improve. But it can also make a good outcome feel disappointing when we focus on a better outcome that was within reach.
For the silver medalist, the gold medal is an obvious alternative. The gap between second and first can seem frustratingly small. For the bronze medalist, fourth place is the alternative, and the difference between winning a medal and missing the podium altogether can feel enormous.
The actual achievement has not changed. The comparison has.
The story becomes more interesting when we consider expectations.
In a 2005 study, A. Peter McGraw, Barbara A. Mellers, and Philip E. Tetlock examined how athletes' expectations influence their emotional reactions. Their findings suggested that anticipated performance matters alongside the medal itself. Athletes who expected more may feel more disappointed when their results fall short of those expectations.
Consider two athletes who finish second. One expected to win gold. The other expected to finish outside the medals. They have the same result, but very different reasons to celebrate.
This helps explain why medal color alone cannot tell us how satisfied an athlete feels. The result, the expectation, and the imagined alternative all matter. (McGraw, Mellers, and Tetlock, 2005)
The original finding has inspired further studies, and the evidence is more nuanced than the familiar headline suggests.
In a study of the 2016 Summer Olympics, Mark S. Allen, Sarah J. Knipler, and Amy Y. C. Chan analyzed photographs of medalists and statements about their performances. They found that silver medalists expressed more counterfactual thoughts than bronze medalists, particularly thoughts about how things could have gone better. However, the difference in visible happiness between silver and bronze medalists was small or negligible. (Allen, Knipler, and Chan, 2019)
A 2021 conceptual replication by William M. Hedgcock, Andrea W. Luangrath, and Raelyn Webster examined medal-stand photographs from multiple Olympic Games. Their findings supported both category-based comparisons, such as winning a medal versus missing one, and expectation-based comparisons as explanations for athletes' expressions. (Hedgcock, Luangrath, and Webster, 2021)
Research by Paul Dolan and colleagues added an important qualification. Their 2021 study found no general happiness advantage for bronze medalists over silver medalists. However, when the performance gap was especially narrow, the athletes' emotional responses diverged. (Dolan, Foy, Kavetsos, and Kudrna, 2021)
The takeaway is not that bronze medalists are always happier than silver medalists. It is that the way we interpret an outcome can influence how we feel about it.
The implications extend well beyond sports. In business and professional life, people regularly evaluate outcomes against expectations, competing possibilities, and opportunities they narrowly missed. The same result can produce very different reactions depending on the reference point used to judge it.
A candidate who finishes second in a promotion process may dwell on the role they nearly secured. Another candidate who wins a smaller opportunity may feel delighted because the alternative was getting nothing.
A business that achieves strong growth may be disappointed because it missed an ambitious target. Another business with more modest growth may celebrate because it exceeded expectations.
A project team may deliver a successful outcome yet feel frustrated by the goals it did not reach. Another team may take pride in overcoming obstacles that once threatened the entire project.
These examples are illustrations of the underlying principle, not proof that the same effect occurs in every situation. Circumstances, expectations, and individual differences all play a role.
Still, the question is worth asking whenever we evaluate performance: Are we judging the result itself, or are we judging it against an imagined alternative?
Satisfaction depends partly on the outcome and partly on the alternatives one imagines. The silver medalist may feel disappointed at having come so close to gold, while the bronze medalist may feel relieved and delighted to have secured a place on the podium. The same competition can therefore produce very different emotional responses, shaped in part by what each athlete believes might have been.
That principle has implications well beyond sports, including business, careers, project outcomes, and personal goals. Our reference point can profoundly influence how we feel about success.
Scott M. Graffius helps organizations unlock breakthrough performance and generate billions in business value ($3.1 billion to date) through leadership in AI, Agile, teamwork tradecraft, and project, program, portfolio, and enterprise PMO management. Graffius and his work are used and cited by Adobe, Bayer, Boston University, Johns Hopkins University, Microsoft, U.S. Soccer, U.S. Tennis Association, UK Sports Institute, Yale University, and many more. Put his experience and expertise to work for your organization. For speaking engagements, use the request form. For other inquiries, email him.
Allen, M. S., Knipler, S. J., & Chan, A. Y. C. (2019). Happiness and counterfactual thinking at the 2016 Summer Olympic Games. Journal of Sports Sciences, 37(15), 1762–1769. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2019.1592803
Choi, J., & Choi, I. (2017). Happiness is medal-color blind: Happy people value silver and bronze medals more than unhappy people. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 68, 78–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2016.06.002
Dolan, P., Foy, C., Kavetsos, G., & Kudrna, L. (2021). Faster, higher, stronger… and happier? Relative achievement and marginal rank effects. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 95, Article 101761. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2021.101761
Graffius, S. M. (2026, March 31). Phases of Team Development in Elite Sport. ScottGraffius.com. https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/phases-of-team-development-in-elite-sport.html
Hedgcock, W. M., Luangrath, A. W., & Webster, R. (2021). Counterfactual thinking and facial expressions among Olympic medalists: A conceptual replication of Medvec, Madey, and Gilovich's (1995) findings. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 150(6), e13–e21. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000992
McGraw, A. P., Mellers, B. A., & Tetlock, P. E. (2005). Expectations and emotions of Olympic athletes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 41(4), 438–446. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2004.09.001
Medvec, V. H., & Savitsky, K. (1997). When doing better means feeling worse: The effects of categorical cutoff points on counterfactual thinking and satisfaction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 72(6), 1284–1296. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.72.6.1284
Medvec, V. H., Madey, S. F., & Gilovich, T. (1995). When less is more: Counterfactual thinking and satisfaction among Olympic medalists. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69(4), 603–610. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.69.4.603
Taheri Hosseinkhani, N. (2025). The silver lining or the silver curse? How competition structure determines the behavioral consequences of a near-win. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5385437
Scott M. Graffius is a technology leader, researcher, award-winning author, practitioner, consultant, thought leader, and international public speaker specializing in AI, Agile, project/program/portfolio management (PPPM), PMO leadership, and teamwork tradecraft. His work explores the intersection of human ingenuity and emerging technology, with a strong practitioner voice grounded in research, experimentation, and experience. His focus includes innovation, organizational performance, and the evolving practice of teamwork, including the "exotic team dynamics" that emerge when people collaborate with advanced artificial intelligence (agentic, autonomous, or autopoietic AI). Graffius has delivered more than $3.1 billion in business value for Fortune 500 companies and other organizations spanning technology, entertainment and media, financial services, healthcare, government, and other industries.
Businesses, professional associations, government agencies, universities, publications, and media outlets use Graffius and his work. Examples include Adobe, Bayer, Boston University, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Ford, Gartner, Harvard Medical School, IEEE, Innovation Project Management, Johns Hopkins University, Microsoft, MSN, National Academy of Sciences, Oracle, Pinterest Inc., Project Management Institute, UC San Diego, Verizon, Yale University, and others.
The following sections highlight his experience, leadership, contributions, research, and enduring influence across industries and institutions worldwide.
Experience
Graffius heads the professional services firm Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions, along with its subsidiary Exceptional Agility. These consultancies offer strategic and tactical advisory, training, embedded expertise, and consulting services to the public, private, and government sectors. They help organizations enhance their capabilities and results in agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and enterprise PMO leadership, supporting innovation and driving competitive advantage. The consultancies confidently back services with a Delighted Client Guarantee™.
Graffius is a former VP of project management with a publicly traded provider of diverse consumer products and services over the Internet. Before that, he ran and supervised the delivery of projects and programs in public and private organizations with businesses ranging from e-commerce to advanced technology products and services, retail, manufacturing, entertainment and media, and more.
He has experience with consumer, business, reseller, government, and international markets.
Additional information is on LinkedIn.
Award-Winning Author
Graffius has authored three books.
Graffius' first book, Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions, earned 17 awards. It provides a practical, step-by-step guide to Scrum, enabling teams to deliver products in short cycles with rapid adaptation, fast time-to-market, and continuous improvement—which supports innovation and drives competitive advantage.
Additional information on Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions is here.
His second book, Agile Transformation: A Brief Story of How an Entertainment Company Developed New Capabilities and Unlocked Business Agility to Thrive in an Era of Rapid Change, was named one of the best Scrum books of all time by BookAuthority. It tells the compelling story of an entertainment company's agile transformation—offering lessons that apply across industries.
Additional information on Agile Transformation: A Brief Story of How an Entertainment Company Developed New Capabilities and Unlocked Business Agility to Thrive in an Era of Rapid Change is here.
Agile Protocol: The Transformation Ultimatum, is his third book—and his first work of fiction.
It's a fast-paced satirical story by that dismantles corporate Agile cosplay and other forms of "fake Agile" while delivering practical insights, actionable guidance, and proven practices for real-world Agile transformation success.
Packed with humor, quirky characters, sharp commentary on corporate culture and workplace absurdities, and actionable tips, it’s a must-read for Scrum Masters, Product Owners, Agile Coaches, Agile Project Managers, and other professionals interested in Agile project management and enterprise agility.
Additional information on Agile Protocol: The Transformation Ultimatum is here.
International Public Speaker
Organizations worldwide engage Graffius to present on technology (including AI), Agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and enterprise PMO leadership. He crafts and delivers unique and compelling talks and workshops.
Graffius has conducted 99 sessions across 25 countries. Select examples of events include Agile Trends Gov, BSides (Newcastle Upon Tyne), Conf42 Quantum Computing, DevDays Europe, DevOps Institute, DevOpsDays (Geneva), Frug’Agile, IEEE, Microsoft, Scottish Summit, Scrum Alliance RSG (Nepal), Techstars, and W Love Games International Video Game Development Conference (Helsinki), Future of Work and Advanced AI (Paris, France), and more.
With an average rating of 4.82 (on a scale of 1-5), sessions are highly valued.
The request form is here.
Thought Leadership and Influence
Prominent businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities have showcased Graffius and his contributions—spanning his books, talks, workshops, and beyond. Select examples include:
Graffius has played a key role in the Project Management Institute (PMI) in developing professional standards. He was a member of multiple teams that authored, reviewed, and produced:
He was also a subject matter expert reviewer of content for the PMI’s Congress. Beyond the PMI, Graffius also served as a member of the review team for two of the Scrum Alliance’s Global Scrum Gatherings.
Authority on Teamwork Tradecraft
Graffius is a renowned and highly-cited authority on teamwork tradecraft. Informed by the research of Bruce W. Tuckman and Mary Ann C. Jensen, over 150 subsequent studies, and Graffius' first-hand professional experience with, and analysis of, team leadership and performance, Graffius created his "Phases of Team Development" intellectual property as a unique perspective and visual conveying the five phases of team development.
First introduced in 2008 and periodically updated, his work provides a diagnostic and strategic guide for navigating team dynamics. It provides actionable insights for leaders across industries to develop high-performance teams.
Its adoption by esteemed organizations—such as Yale University, IEEE, Cisco, Microsoft, Ford, Oracle, Broadcom, the U.S. National Park Service, and the Journal of Neurosurgery, among others—highlights its utility and value, solidifying its status as an indispensable resource for elevating team performance and driving organizational excellence.
In 2026, Graffius added human-AI teamwork—including the "exotic team dynamics" which emerge when advanced AI collaborates as a teammate—to his "Phases of Team Development." The 2026 edition is here.
Expert on Temporal Dynamics on Social Media Platforms
Graffius is also an authority on temporal dynamics on social media platforms. His "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research—first published in 2018 and updated annually—delivers a precise quantitative analysis of post longevity across digital platforms, utilizing advanced statistical techniques to determine mean half-life with precision. It establishes a solid empirical base, effectively highlighting the ephemeral nature of content within social media ecosystems.
Referenced and applied by leading entities—such as Fast Company, GoDaddy, Journal of Hand Surgery (European Volume), Ministère de la Culture, Pinterest Inc., PNAS, and Telecommunications Policy, among others—his research exemplifies methodological rigor and sustained significance in the field of digital informatics.
The 2026 edition of Graffius "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research is here.
Education and Professional Certifications
Graffius has a bachelor’s degree in psychology with a focus in Human Factors. He holds eight professional certifications:
He is an active member of the Scrum Alliance, the Project Management Institute (PMI), and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
Advancing AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Management
Scott M. Graffius continues to advance the fields of AI, Agile, and project/program/portfolio management (PPPM), and PMO leadership. Businesses and other organizations leverage Graffius’ insights to drive their success.
Graffius has generated over $3.1 billion in business value for Fortune 500 companies and other organizations served. Put that track record to work for you. For speaking engagements, use the request form; for other inquiries, email him.
Connect with and follow Scott on LinkedIn, X, YouTube, Facebook, Bluesky, Mastodon, and ResearchGate.
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Graffius, S. M. (2026, November 9). The Silver Medal Paradox: Why Coming in Third Can Feel Better Than Coming in Second. ScottGraffius.com. https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/silver-medal-paradox.html
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Graffius, S. M. (2026, November 9). The Silver Medal Paradox: Why Coming in Third Can Feel Better Than Coming in Second. ScottGraffius.com. https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/silver-medal-paradox.html
About This Article
Source information and links for materials cited are provided in the References section.
Introduction
Imagine three athletes standing on an Olympic podium. One has just won gold, another silver, and the third bronze. The silver medalist finished ahead of the bronze medalist. Yet research suggests the bronze medalist may be happier.
How can coming in third feel better than coming in second?
The answer reveals something fascinating about human psychology. We don't evaluate success solely by what we achieve. We also evaluate it against what might have happened.
The Surprising Finding
In a landmark 1995 study, psychologists Victoria Husted Medvec, Scott F. Madey, and Thomas Gilovich examined athletes' emotional reactions at the 1992 Summer Olympics. They found that bronze medalists tended to appear happier than silver medalists, both immediately after competition and on the medal stand.
The researchers proposed a simple explanation. Silver medalists may think, “I almost won gold.” Bronze medalists may think, “At least I won a medal.”
One athlete focuses on the achievement just out of reach. The other focuses on the disappointment narrowly avoided.
The difference is striking. Both athletes have accomplished something exceptional, yet their reactions may be shaped by entirely different comparisons. (Medvec, Madey, and Gilovich, 1995)
The Psychology of "What Might Have Been"
Psychologists call this counterfactual thinking: imagining alternatives to what actually happened.
We do it constantly. After a job interview, we wonder whether a better answer might have secured the position. After buying something, we wonder whether another option would have been better. After a close competition, we replay the decisive moments and imagine a different outcome.
Counterfactual thinking can be useful. It helps us learn, prepare, and improve. But it can also make a good outcome feel disappointing when we focus on a better outcome that was within reach.
For the silver medalist, the gold medal is an obvious alternative. The gap between second and first can seem frustratingly small. For the bronze medalist, fourth place is the alternative, and the difference between winning a medal and missing the podium altogether can feel enormous.
The actual achievement has not changed. The comparison has.
The Core Mechanism: Counterfactual Thinking
The difference in emotional response stems from counterfactual thinking, the tendency to imagine alternative outcomes to what actually happened.
- Silver Medalists (Upward Counterfactuals): Second-place winners compare their outcome to a better alternative, such as winning the gold ("If only I had pushed a little harder, I would have won gold"). This creates feelings of regret, loss, and disappointment.
- Bronze Medalists (Downward Counterfactuals): Third-place winners compare their outcome to a worse alternative, such as finishing fourth and missing the podium completely ("At least I got a medal / I almost missed out"). This creates feelings of relief, gratitude, and achievement.
Expectations matter
The story becomes more interesting when we consider expectations.
In a 2005 study, A. Peter McGraw, Barbara A. Mellers, and Philip E. Tetlock examined how athletes' expectations influence their emotional reactions. Their findings suggested that anticipated performance matters alongside the medal itself. Athletes who expected more may feel more disappointed when their results fall short of those expectations.
Consider two athletes who finish second. One expected to win gold. The other expected to finish outside the medals. They have the same result, but very different reasons to celebrate.
This helps explain why medal color alone cannot tell us how satisfied an athlete feels. The result, the expectation, and the imagined alternative all matter. (McGraw, Mellers, and Tetlock, 2005)
More Research
The original finding has inspired further studies, and the evidence is more nuanced than the familiar headline suggests.
In a study of the 2016 Summer Olympics, Mark S. Allen, Sarah J. Knipler, and Amy Y. C. Chan analyzed photographs of medalists and statements about their performances. They found that silver medalists expressed more counterfactual thoughts than bronze medalists, particularly thoughts about how things could have gone better. However, the difference in visible happiness between silver and bronze medalists was small or negligible. (Allen, Knipler, and Chan, 2019)
A 2021 conceptual replication by William M. Hedgcock, Andrea W. Luangrath, and Raelyn Webster examined medal-stand photographs from multiple Olympic Games. Their findings supported both category-based comparisons, such as winning a medal versus missing one, and expectation-based comparisons as explanations for athletes' expressions. (Hedgcock, Luangrath, and Webster, 2021)
Research by Paul Dolan and colleagues added an important qualification. Their 2021 study found no general happiness advantage for bronze medalists over silver medalists. However, when the performance gap was especially narrow, the athletes' emotional responses diverged. (Dolan, Foy, Kavetsos, and Kudrna, 2021)
The takeaway is not that bronze medalists are always happier than silver medalists. It is that the way we interpret an outcome can influence how we feel about it.
What This Means Beyond Sports
The implications extend well beyond sports. In business and professional life, people regularly evaluate outcomes against expectations, competing possibilities, and opportunities they narrowly missed. The same result can produce very different reactions depending on the reference point used to judge it.
A candidate who finishes second in a promotion process may dwell on the role they nearly secured. Another candidate who wins a smaller opportunity may feel delighted because the alternative was getting nothing.
A business that achieves strong growth may be disappointed because it missed an ambitious target. Another business with more modest growth may celebrate because it exceeded expectations.
A project team may deliver a successful outcome yet feel frustrated by the goals it did not reach. Another team may take pride in overcoming obstacles that once threatened the entire project.
These examples are illustrations of the underlying principle, not proof that the same effect occurs in every situation. Circumstances, expectations, and individual differences all play a role.
Still, the question is worth asking whenever we evaluate performance: Are we judging the result itself, or are we judging it against an imagined alternative?
Conclusion
Satisfaction depends partly on the outcome and partly on the alternatives one imagines. The silver medalist may feel disappointed at having come so close to gold, while the bronze medalist may feel relieved and delighted to have secured a place on the podium. The same competition can therefore produce very different emotional responses, shaped in part by what each athlete believes might have been.
That principle has implications well beyond sports, including business, careers, project outcomes, and personal goals. Our reference point can profoundly influence how we feel about success.
Scott M. Graffius helps organizations unlock breakthrough performance and generate billions in business value ($3.1 billion to date) through leadership in AI, Agile, teamwork tradecraft, and project, program, portfolio, and enterprise PMO management. Graffius and his work are used and cited by Adobe, Bayer, Boston University, Johns Hopkins University, Microsoft, U.S. Soccer, U.S. Tennis Association, UK Sports Institute, Yale University, and many more. Put his experience and expertise to work for your organization. For speaking engagements, use the request form. For other inquiries, email him.
References
Allen, M. S., Knipler, S. J., & Chan, A. Y. C. (2019). Happiness and counterfactual thinking at the 2016 Summer Olympic Games. Journal of Sports Sciences, 37(15), 1762–1769. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2019.1592803
Choi, J., & Choi, I. (2017). Happiness is medal-color blind: Happy people value silver and bronze medals more than unhappy people. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 68, 78–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2016.06.002
Dolan, P., Foy, C., Kavetsos, G., & Kudrna, L. (2021). Faster, higher, stronger… and happier? Relative achievement and marginal rank effects. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 95, Article 101761. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2021.101761
Graffius, S. M. (2026, March 31). Phases of Team Development in Elite Sport. ScottGraffius.com. https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/phases-of-team-development-in-elite-sport.html
Hedgcock, W. M., Luangrath, A. W., & Webster, R. (2021). Counterfactual thinking and facial expressions among Olympic medalists: A conceptual replication of Medvec, Madey, and Gilovich's (1995) findings. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 150(6), e13–e21. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000992
McGraw, A. P., Mellers, B. A., & Tetlock, P. E. (2005). Expectations and emotions of Olympic athletes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 41(4), 438–446. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2004.09.001
Medvec, V. H., & Savitsky, K. (1997). When doing better means feeling worse: The effects of categorical cutoff points on counterfactual thinking and satisfaction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 72(6), 1284–1296. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.72.6.1284
Medvec, V. H., Madey, S. F., & Gilovich, T. (1995). When less is more: Counterfactual thinking and satisfaction among Olympic medalists. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69(4), 603–610. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.69.4.603
Taheri Hosseinkhani, N. (2025). The silver lining or the silver curse? How competition structure determines the behavioral consequences of a near-win. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5385437
About Scott M. Graffius
Scott M. Graffius is a technology leader, researcher, award-winning author, practitioner, consultant, thought leader, and international public speaker specializing in AI, Agile, project/program/portfolio management (PPPM), PMO leadership, and teamwork tradecraft. His work explores the intersection of human ingenuity and emerging technology, with a strong practitioner voice grounded in research, experimentation, and experience. His focus includes innovation, organizational performance, and the evolving practice of teamwork, including the "exotic team dynamics" that emerge when people collaborate with advanced artificial intelligence (agentic, autonomous, or autopoietic AI). Graffius has delivered more than $3.1 billion in business value for Fortune 500 companies and other organizations spanning technology, entertainment and media, financial services, healthcare, government, and other industries.
Businesses, professional associations, government agencies, universities, publications, and media outlets use Graffius and his work. Examples include Adobe, Bayer, Boston University, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Ford, Gartner, Harvard Medical School, IEEE, Innovation Project Management, Johns Hopkins University, Microsoft, MSN, National Academy of Sciences, Oracle, Pinterest Inc., Project Management Institute, UC San Diego, Verizon, Yale University, and others.
The following sections highlight his experience, leadership, contributions, research, and enduring influence across industries and institutions worldwide.
Experience
Graffius heads the professional services firm Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions, along with its subsidiary Exceptional Agility. These consultancies offer strategic and tactical advisory, training, embedded expertise, and consulting services to the public, private, and government sectors. They help organizations enhance their capabilities and results in agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and enterprise PMO leadership, supporting innovation and driving competitive advantage. The consultancies confidently back services with a Delighted Client Guarantee™.
Graffius is a former VP of project management with a publicly traded provider of diverse consumer products and services over the Internet. Before that, he ran and supervised the delivery of projects and programs in public and private organizations with businesses ranging from e-commerce to advanced technology products and services, retail, manufacturing, entertainment and media, and more.
He has experience with consumer, business, reseller, government, and international markets.
Additional information is on LinkedIn.
Award-Winning Author
Graffius has authored three books.
Graffius' first book, Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions, earned 17 awards. It provides a practical, step-by-step guide to Scrum, enabling teams to deliver products in short cycles with rapid adaptation, fast time-to-market, and continuous improvement—which supports innovation and drives competitive advantage.
- Paperback ISBN-13: 9781533370242
- Kindle ASIN: B01FZ0JIIY
Additional information on Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions is here.
His second book, Agile Transformation: A Brief Story of How an Entertainment Company Developed New Capabilities and Unlocked Business Agility to Thrive in an Era of Rapid Change, was named one of the best Scrum books of all time by BookAuthority. It tells the compelling story of an entertainment company's agile transformation—offering lessons that apply across industries.
- Paperback ISBN-13: 9781072447962
- Kindle ASIN: B07R9LJLPJ
Additional information on Agile Transformation: A Brief Story of How an Entertainment Company Developed New Capabilities and Unlocked Business Agility to Thrive in an Era of Rapid Change is here.
Agile Protocol: The Transformation Ultimatum, is his third book—and his first work of fiction.
It's a fast-paced satirical story by that dismantles corporate Agile cosplay and other forms of "fake Agile" while delivering practical insights, actionable guidance, and proven practices for real-world Agile transformation success.
Packed with humor, quirky characters, sharp commentary on corporate culture and workplace absurdities, and actionable tips, it’s a must-read for Scrum Masters, Product Owners, Agile Coaches, Agile Project Managers, and other professionals interested in Agile project management and enterprise agility.
- Kindle ASIN: B0F2SJ83WT
- Audible ASIN: B0DJG163R5
Additional information on Agile Protocol: The Transformation Ultimatum is here.
International Public Speaker
Organizations worldwide engage Graffius to present on technology (including AI), Agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and enterprise PMO leadership. He crafts and delivers unique and compelling talks and workshops.
Graffius has conducted 99 sessions across 25 countries. Select examples of events include Agile Trends Gov, BSides (Newcastle Upon Tyne), Conf42 Quantum Computing, DevDays Europe, DevOps Institute, DevOpsDays (Geneva), Frug’Agile, IEEE, Microsoft, Scottish Summit, Scrum Alliance RSG (Nepal), Techstars, and W Love Games International Video Game Development Conference (Helsinki), Future of Work and Advanced AI (Paris, France), and more.
With an average rating of 4.82 (on a scale of 1-5), sessions are highly valued.
The request form is here.
Thought Leadership and Influence
Prominent businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities have showcased Graffius and his contributions—spanning his books, talks, workshops, and beyond. Select examples include:
- Adobe,
- American Management Association,
- Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute,
- Bayer,
- BCG,
- BMC Software,
- Boston Consulting Group (BCG),
- Boston University,
- Broadcom,
- Cisco,
- Coburg University of Applied Sciences and Arts - Germany,
- Computer Weekly,
- Constructor University - Germany,
- Data Governance Success,
- Deimos Aerospace,
- DevOps Institute,
- Dropbox,
- EU's European Commission,
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
- Ford Motor Company,
- Gartner,
- GoDaddy,
- Harvard Medical School,
- Hasso Plattner Institute - Germany,
- IEEE,
- Innovation Project Management,
- Johns Hopkins University,
- Journal of Marketing,
- Journal of Neurosurgery,
- Lam Research (Semiconductors),
- Leadership Worthy,
- Life Sciences Trainers and Educators Network,
- London South Bank University,
- Microsoft,
- MSN,
- NASSCOM,
- National Academy of Sciences,
- New Zealand Government,
- Ohio State University,
- Oracle,
- Pinterest Inc.,
- Project Management Institute,
- Mary Raum (Professor of National Security Affairs, United States Naval War College),
- Round Square Global Educational Network,
- Royal Australasian College of Physicians (RACP),
- SANS Institute,
- SBG Neumark - Germany,
- Singapore Institute of Technology,
- Torrens University - Australia,
- TBS Switzerland,
- Tufts University,
- UC San Diego,
- UK Sports Institute,
- University of Galway - Ireland,
- US Department of Energy,
- US National Park Service,
- US Soccer,
- US Tennis Association,
- Verizon,
- Wrike,
- Yale University,
- and many others.
Graffius has played a key role in the Project Management Institute (PMI) in developing professional standards. He was a member of multiple teams that authored, reviewed, and produced:
- The Standard for Artificial Intelligence in Portfolio, Program, and Project Management.
- Agile Practice Guide — Second Edition.
- A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) — Eighth Edition.
- A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) — Sixth Edition.
- The Standard for Program Management — Fourth Edition.
- Practice Standard for Work Breakdown Structures — Second Edition.
- The Practice Standard for Project Estimating — Second Edition.
He was also a subject matter expert reviewer of content for the PMI’s Congress. Beyond the PMI, Graffius also served as a member of the review team for two of the Scrum Alliance’s Global Scrum Gatherings.
Authority on Teamwork Tradecraft
Graffius is a renowned and highly-cited authority on teamwork tradecraft. Informed by the research of Bruce W. Tuckman and Mary Ann C. Jensen, over 150 subsequent studies, and Graffius' first-hand professional experience with, and analysis of, team leadership and performance, Graffius created his "Phases of Team Development" intellectual property as a unique perspective and visual conveying the five phases of team development.
First introduced in 2008 and periodically updated, his work provides a diagnostic and strategic guide for navigating team dynamics. It provides actionable insights for leaders across industries to develop high-performance teams.
Its adoption by esteemed organizations—such as Yale University, IEEE, Cisco, Microsoft, Ford, Oracle, Broadcom, the U.S. National Park Service, and the Journal of Neurosurgery, among others—highlights its utility and value, solidifying its status as an indispensable resource for elevating team performance and driving organizational excellence.
In 2026, Graffius added human-AI teamwork—including the "exotic team dynamics" which emerge when advanced AI collaborates as a teammate—to his "Phases of Team Development." The 2026 edition is here.
Expert on Temporal Dynamics on Social Media Platforms
Graffius is also an authority on temporal dynamics on social media platforms. His "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research—first published in 2018 and updated annually—delivers a precise quantitative analysis of post longevity across digital platforms, utilizing advanced statistical techniques to determine mean half-life with precision. It establishes a solid empirical base, effectively highlighting the ephemeral nature of content within social media ecosystems.
Referenced and applied by leading entities—such as Fast Company, GoDaddy, Journal of Hand Surgery (European Volume), Ministère de la Culture, Pinterest Inc., PNAS, and Telecommunications Policy, among others—his research exemplifies methodological rigor and sustained significance in the field of digital informatics.
The 2026 edition of Graffius "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research is here.
Education and Professional Certifications
Graffius has a bachelor’s degree in psychology with a focus in Human Factors. He holds eight professional certifications:
- Certified SAFe 6 Agilist (SA),
- Certified Scrum Professional - ScrumMaster (CSP-SM),
- Certified Scrum Professional - Product Owner (CSP-PO),
- Certified ScrumMaster (CSM),
- Certified Scrum Product Owner (CSPO),
- Project Management Professional (PMP),
- Lean Six Sigma Green Belt (LSSGB), and
- IT Service Management Foundation (ITIL).
He is an active member of the Scrum Alliance, the Project Management Institute (PMI), and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
Advancing AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Management
Scott M. Graffius continues to advance the fields of AI, Agile, and project/program/portfolio management (PPPM), and PMO leadership. Businesses and other organizations leverage Graffius’ insights to drive their success.
Booking
Graffius has generated over $3.1 billion in business value for Fortune 500 companies and other organizations served. Put that track record to work for you. For speaking engagements, use the request form; for other inquiries, email him.
Connect with and follow Scott on LinkedIn, X, YouTube, Facebook, Bluesky, Mastodon, and ResearchGate.
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List of Additional Articles
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More articles are listed here.
How to Cite This Article
Graffius, S. M. (2026, November 9). The Silver Medal Paradox: Why Coming in Third Can Feel Better Than Coming in Second. ScottGraffius.com. https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/silver-medal-paradox.html
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Tags and Hashtags
- Counterfactual Thinking
- Silver Medal Paradox
- Olympic Psychology
- Decision-Making
- Human Psychology
- Happiness and Satisfaction
- Performance and Expectations
- Olympics
- Hockey
- NHL
- Tennis
- Soccer
- Gold Medal Winner
- Silver Medal Winner
- Bronze Medal Winner
- #CounterfactualThinking
- #SilverMedalParadox
- #SportsPsychology
- #Psychology
- #DecisionMaking
- #HumanBehavior
- #Performance
- #Olympics
- #Hockey
- #NHL
- #Soccer
- #Tennis
- #GoldMedalWinner
- #SilverMedalWinner
- #BronzeMedalWinner
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